NBA - 817 Sacramento Kings @ 818 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 209 points
Sacramento is coming from an excellent offensive game at Orlando, where they had 9-15 FG and 1.21 PPP on transitions, 8-12 FG on cuts, 1.25 PPP on spot ups and even their pick and roll ball handler plays worked well! The Kings dominated in two areas where if a team does well, it's almost impossible to lose: 22-30 (73.4%) FG at the rim and 10-22 (45.5%) 3pts! The problem is that San Antonio's defense is an elite unit in these two areas. They are #2 in the league in rim defense with 59.9% FG allowed and also #2 on 3pts defense with 32.4% allowed! So, it won't be easy for the Kings to repeat the numbers that they had against the undersized and unfocused Heat and also against the disastrous Magic defense. If we add to this, the bounce back spot for San Antonio and this also being Sacramento's last game of a road trip, we can really expect Sacramento's offense to struggle tonight.
On the last game between these two teams, I took the Over and the Kings had a decent 3pts game with 9-25 (36%) 3pts, however at the rim San Antonio defended very well by allowing the Kings to shoot just 15-29 (51.8%) FG from this area! So, the key in here will be to know what San Antonio's offense will do tonight. Curiously their offensive numbers haven't been that great in their first two games against Sacramento this season (104.77 and 112.05 offensive ratings). They don't seem to be in great physical form and their offense isn't well oiled right now. Sacramento is one of the teams that if they face an opponent who play physical, they can also play physical as well. This is why they have games that end with 120's-120's, but they also have other games that end with 80's-80's results. Sacramento only has super offensive games when their opponents don't take them seriously or the opposing teams have disastrous defenses like Orlando. This won't happen today with a fired up Spurs and so, I expect this contest to be a physical low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Under 213,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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