Projected Line: Denver by 10 points | 217 points
We knew that Denver would sooner or later start playing better and winning more games simply because they had a brutal early schedule with a huge amount of road games. Now that Denver is on a homespan, they have been beating their opponents with ease. The Nuggets are just outgunning their opponents and they are averaging 22.9 fast break points per game and 58 points in the paint over their last 10 games, while their pace average on their last 7 games has been 97.5! One of the key factors of this Nuggets's improvement has been Ty Lawson, as over the team's last 7 games, Lawson has been averaging 20.3 points, 7.4 assists and 2.4 steals, while shooting 50% FG and 54.2% 3pts! Denver, who just couldn't shoot from the outside, has also improved big time from that area recently, with 58-150 (38.6%) 3pts on their last 7 games!
Curiously, the Bucks have been the Denver Nuggets of the Eastern Conference. They are clearly the team with the fastest pace of their conference, as they are #4 in the league in pace factor (Denver is #2, only behind the Rockets). Milwaukee's offense has been improving under Coach Boylan, even though of their offensive ratings lately haven't been pretty. However, they had a tough stretch with 4 games in 5 nights, but they had two days of rest prior to tonight's game, so they will be on a better spot. Their X factor has been Ersan Ilyasova, who has finally started to play at the level that made the Bucks resign him on the offseason. The Turkish player is the pivotal stretch four for Milwaukee, who allows Larry Sanders to operate down low, while he is stretching the floor on the perimeter. Milwaukee was supposed to be a good rebounding team, but they have been terrible on their last four games, with a rebound rate of just 46.83% on their last 4 games, while allowing 21, 15, 14 and 20 offensive rebounds to their opponents. They will certainly need to improve on this area, in order to be competitive against the Nuggets tonight.
Having in account how impressive Denver's offense has been on this good stretch for them, it's important to see what Milwaukee's defense has been doing in defensive rebounding, transition defense and paint defense. As I've mentioned before, their defensive rebounding has been a disaster, as they are #28 in the league with 70.2% on defensive rebounds and their numbers on their last 4 games are even worse. Even if Denver isn't sharp on their outside shooting tonight, they will have a super edge on offensive boards, as they are #2 in the league with 31.4% on offensive rebounds! After a decent start of the season on transition defense, Milwaukee has been regressing and they are now just #22 in the league with 1.16 PPP allowed for the season, while still regressing a bit lately: 1.21 PPP over the last 10 games and 1.17 over the last 5 games. Even in games against teams without great committing in running like Detroit, Chicago or the NY Knicks, Milwaukee allowed 16, 17 and 17 fast break points! Near the basket, Milwaukee has been having decent numbers with just 61% FG allowed at the rim for the season. However, they had a game lately where they got crushed at the rim lately, as they allowed 66 points in the paint against Chicago, while allowing 75% FG at the rim! These are all bad news for the Bucks, who will be playing in one of the toughest arenas of the league and on a fast paced game, Denver will be able to do whatever they want with this Bucks's defense.
Milwaukee's offense will immediately have a potential problem tonight. Andre Iguodala will probably defend Monta Ellis, so one of their best offensive players is going to get shutdown tonight. The Bucks have been shooting well from 3pts lately with 40% over their last 10 games and 42.6% over their last 5 games and this can be positive for them, as Denver's main defensive problem is the amount of space they give to their opponents on the perimeter. However, with the Nuggets being an elite defensive team on pick and roll ball handler plays (#6 in the league) and transition defense (#4 in the league), they will be an overall very tough matchup for Milwaukee. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Denver tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. As I expect this contest to be a really fast paced one and with Denver having a great offensive game and Milwaukee having some success from their outside shooting, I'll be also taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Denver Nuggets (-6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 213 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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