NBA - 709 Portland Trailblazers @ 710 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Line: Minnesota by 12 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Minnesota isn't shorthanded anymore and coach Adelman had 12 available players on the team's last game against New Orleans. The Wolves had finally four healthy guards in Ricky Rubio, Luke Ridnour, J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved! These four players gave the team a great ball movement, as they combined 7+4+6+8 assists, so Minnesota had plenty of good looks. They took advantage of New Orleans's horrible spot and they were much more aggressive than usual to start the game, especially Ricky Rubio. He was attacking the basket much more than since his return from surgery and he also put a lot of pressure on the Hornets's ball handlers, causing the Hornets to commit 23 turnovers that resulted in 29 points off turnovers from Minnesota. It was the best game of the season for Minnesota in both ends of the floor, even though they were facing a really favorable matchup for them and their opponent was on a terrible spot.
Portland is coming from a double-header against Utah and the key for the Blazers's win in the second game was using the same tactics they used during the second half of the first game: double-teaming Utah's big players whenever they touched the ball. With this tactics, Portland gave the Jazz a lot of space on the outside and they used that to shoot 8-19 3pts, mostly thanks to Randy Foye, who shoot 6-12 3pts on his own. However, this resulted in Utah's frontcourt being limited and so, the Blazers ended up winning the game. Portland 's offense looked a bit lost in the second half, with just 53 points scored with six minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, but then Damian Lillard exploded against Utah's slow footed guards. The poor individual defense from Jamaal Tinsley, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson was also exposed by Portland, especially by Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge that had big games thanks to that, while the Blazers really took advantage of that to have good numbers on pick and rolls and post up plays.
I really don't like Portland's spot for this game. They have their backup PG Ronnie Price is doubtful for tonight, Wesley Matthews is questionable with an ankle injury, while Nicolas Batum is playing with a wrist injury who is preventing him from shooting well to the basket. Considering the fact that they have no depth on their roster and that they will play their 6th game in just 10 days and always traveling with two home-home back to back series, I expect Minnesota to have a huge spot edge tonight with their much lighter schedule, as they are currently on a home stretch.
I really liked Minnesota's backcourt dynamic on their last game. They have four decent guards with lots of energy in both offense and defense. Portland's perimeter defense is weak, Damian Lillard is a poor individual defender, Wesley Matthews is banged up, so Portland is being forced to give minutes to Will Barton, Nolan Smith and Luke Babbitt: no wonder they are #24 on pick and roll ball handler defense or #29 in cuts defense! I liked what I've seen from Ricky Rubio on the team's last few games. He doesn't have any restriction in terms of minutes played and on the team's last four games, he shot 4-9 FG, 4-9 FG, 4-9 FG and 3-5 FG, while dishing 8, 4, 7 and 7 assists. This is much better than on his first games after his return from surgery.
On the frontcourt, Portland doesn't have a player that can defend Nikola Pekovic down low. In the last game between these two teams, Portland won at Minnesota, but while J.J. Hickson shot 1-10 FG in 29 minutes, Nikola Pekovic had 9-14 FG, 21 points and 15 rebounds in just 22 minutes! He only played 22 minutes because he left the game in the third quarter with a left hip strain. Minnesota had also lost Kevin Love a few hours prior to that game, so they were psychologically affected, while Portland had a ridiculously good outside shooting game with 16-24 3pts!
Today, with Minnesota having a much better spot than Portland, with a revenge spot and with nice matchup edges, I expect the Wolves to have an easy win and so, I'll be taking them in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 710 Minnesota Timberwolves (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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