NBA Free Premium Play 02/05: Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers

Atlanta  at Indiana

NBA - 501 Atlanta Hawks @ 502 Indiana Pacers Projected Line: 187 points Indiana has been amazing on the offensive end lately and they had the following offensive ratings on their last 5 games: 120.7, 111.4, 110.7, 118.6 and 125.7! In fact, three of the four best offensive games of the Pacers this season have been on their last 5 games! David West is simply dominating down low with his post up moves, while the Pacers's outside shooting is really red hot right now with 31-68 (45.5%) 3pts on their last 4 games! This offensive domination from the Pacers is even more impressive, if we have in account that Roy Hibbert is still struggling on the offensive end (16-45 35% FG on the team's last 4 games)! Indiana had no problems in winning the boards battle against Chicago last night, but the Bulls were shorthanded and completely worn out, especially Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler who played at least 44 minutes in 3 straight games! However, Chicago was still able to make a little comeback and they were just down by 94-98 with two minutes to go! This will be the middle game of a back-to-back-to-back spot for Indiana, who will play at Philadelphia tomorrow. This is due to yesterday's make up game against Chicago. Atlanta is coming from a game against Chicago, where it was demonstrated how easily they fold against physical teams or how prone they are to overlook their opponents. However, for some reason, they are a tough matchup for Indiana. Atlanta won the last 4 games between these two teams and even though they are a bit undersized down low, Roy Hibbert can't perform against Atlanta! On the last game between these two teams, Hibbert was able to remain scoreless for 20 minutes and his performance was so bad that he got benched and didn't play down the stretch! Atlanta has been completely owned on the glass over their last 2 games, while allowing 15 and 18 offensive rebounds to Toronto and Chicago, so if they want to be competitive tonight against the Pacers, they really need to do better on the glass tonight. Zaza Pachulia is unlikely to play tonight, so Atlanta will be once again undersized on the down low. This is a back to back game for Indiana, who is coming from two great wins over their main rivals in the East: Miami and Chicago. Yesterday the Pacers used all their starters at least 30 minutes, with Paul George playing 44 minutes. The good news is that they will play once again at home tonight, so there is no travel factor for them. Regarding what happened to Hibbert on the team's last game against Atlanta, it seems that he will be fired up to play well tonight: "Every game I think about what happened in Atlanta," Roy Hibbert said. "Not to put pressure on myself, but knowing I'm better than that. I told myself, 'I can't let that happen again. I just try to help out as much as I can, at least rebound whenever when I can." Indiana's offense is really having a nice flow right now and I don't think that will change tonight. David West will still have an edge tonight against Josh Smith down low, while the Hawks's starting backcourt of DeShawn Stevenson, Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague doesn't impress me one bit defensively and so, a red hot Indiana should be able to have another great game on their outside shooting today. So, the question in here is to know what Atlanta's offense will be able to do tonight. First of all, I find it unlikely that Indiana will show the same effort and focus for three straight games. They played big games against Miami and Chicago, but considering Atlanta's latest results, they won't be looked as a huge threat for Indiana tonight. Also after their humiliating home loss against a shorthanded Bulls, Atlanta will come more aggressive than ever tonight. They scored just 76 points on their last game and in the two previous times that they scored less than 80 points this season (58 points at Chicago and 76 at LA against the Clippers), they bounced back well in the following game by scoring 95 points at Portland and 109 points against Brooklyn! Indiana's offense has been great, but their effort on defense hasn't been the same, especially on transition defense, where they have been lazy lately. Even though they lead the league on transition defense with just 1.02 PPP allowed, they have been allowing an average of 1.18 PPP on their last 10 games and 1.31 PPP on their last 5 games! With the Hawks being undersized and aggressive, I expect them to try to score in transition as much as possible and they have in here a nice edge to explore indeed. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be a low scoring game at all and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 182,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes