Wednesday, October 19, 2011

UEFA Champions League Play: Valencia @ Bayer Leverkusen

VALENCIA   @ BAYER LEVERKUSEN 




SOCCER PLAY - UEFA Champions League: Valencia @ Bayer Leverkusen

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

I’m taking Valencia AH +0.25 (PK, +0.5) in this contest as in my opinion we should be dealing with a true 50/50 line! If this game ended up with a Draw we will collect 50% of the winnings while the other 50% will be pushed. 

Valencia has 2 points going on to today’s game. They laid an egg in the first round against Genk on the road even though they dominated the game as a 19-7 edge on overall shots might convince you. Then they draw at home against the best team of the group – Chelsea. With was a back and forth game with both teams creating several chances to score (Valencia had a 56/44 ball possession edge and 15-9 overall shots edge as well).  

The sense of urgency for Valencia is huge for today because a potential loss would put them in a huge hole in the group so I expect them to be focused and bring their best effort. They are struggling a bit as of late in their domestic league but facing Barcelona, Sevilla and Chelsea in just 8 days isn’t easy for any team.

On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen has 3 points due to a “natural” home win against Genk. They will be shorthanded for today’s game and in my opinion this will be the X factor: their best Wingers Renato Augusto and Tranquillo Barnetta are both absent because of knee injuries and naturally I expect Leverkusen to have some problems in developing their natural wide-spread offensive game.

They still have Kiessling, Derdiyok and  Ballack – a good offensive trio, but all these players prefer to play from the center. The issue is that Valencia usually plays with two defensive minded central midfielders so they can patrol better this area and they will be able to neutralize that German trio.

Leverkusen isn’t a good defensive team at all and I expect Valencia to be pretty opportunistic in this contest.

NOTE: Line also available @ 5 Dimes (-129 / 1.77) & @ Betonline (-126 / 1.79)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Valencia AH +0.25 (pk, +0.5) @ -126 / 1.79 on Pinnacle




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