***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
*TOP PLAY*
(Starting Pitchers: E. Jackson vs S. Marcum)
I think that the wrong team is favoured in this contest. Sure that the Brewers have been a real monster at home this season, but with a better pitcher on the mound and with an emotional advantage going to tonight's game makes the Cardinals ML the best play in here.
Shaun Marcum is really struggling in these playoffs, however note that his struggles started way before the postseason started. He isn't a power pitcher, instead he has a nice arsenal of different pitchers that he mixes it up to fool hitters. His best pitch (and mainly his best strikeout pitcher) is his changeup. The problem is that he just can't throw that pitch lately. In the last game against the Cardinals, Marcum threw the changeup only 11 times! We are talking about 72 pitches of work! Obviously he managed to get only one strikeout and struggled mightly against the Cards.
I don't expect for this trend to change tonight. The Cardinals have been one of the best teams in the league in avoiding K's (ranked #2 with 15.7% K%'s - only trailing the rangers) and they have the highest BB/K rate in the league! The Cardinals hitters are red hot and they will make Marcum work tonight.
Regarding Edwin Jackson, he has been "OK" (as usual) in these playoffs. Like the Rangers, Tony La Russa has been using wisely the bullpen and with one day off to rest I expect the Cardinals to get an early lead and then keep it up until the end. Take the Cardinals ML as my Triple Dime Play and the Over as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 923 St. Louis Cardinals ML (w/E. Jackson) @ +115 / 2.15 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923/924 Over 8.5 (w/E. Jackson & S. Marcum) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5 Dimes
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