NBA Premium Card 31/05

NBA - 701 Dallas Mavericks @ 702 Miami Heat

***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***

Projected Lines: Miami by 1 | 194 Points

Both Dallas and Miami have been spectacular during these playoffs. They clearly defeated their opponents and won several games down the stretch behind the strong play of their superstars. I must confess that I’m somehow a “Dallas fan” but on my opinion I think that the Miami Heat will win this series and consequently the NBA Championship.

Dallas offense vs. Miami Defense:

The Mavericks are the best offensive team so far in the playoffs and their “play” relies on Dirk Nowitzki and from the perimeter. We all remember how “hot” they were behind the arc against the Lakers but not that they struggled against the Thunder in that department! 

The Lakers are/were a slow footed team: their frontcourt is too big and heavy while the backcourt are constituted by a bunch of old and slow footed guys as well. With a nice ball movement, the Mavericks completed exposed the Lakers’ bad and slow defensive rotations. The same thing cannot be said against the Thunder – a young and athletic team! Dallas finished that series by shooting 38-116 3pts – only 33%! In fact, Dallas was just 29 of 93 in the last four games (28%)!

Yes, the Miami Heat is a super athletic team! They are probably the best defensive team in the NBA in rotating and react on the defensive end. We all knew how good they defend Derrick Rose in every possible situation. NOTE: I don’t think that Miami will be able to shut down the Mavericks! Unlike the Bulls, the Mavericks have multiple shooters on their roster so that task will be almost impossible. However if there are any team that can defend “well” the Mavericks well oiled offense, that team certainly is the Heat (and/or the Bulls by the way).

Another important factor will be the impact of Dirk Nowitzki in this series. Again, it is almost impossible to stop Nowitzki, but Nick Collison did a good job against him in the last series and Miami have two similar defenders to throw on him: Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem.

Dallas defense vs. Miami offense:

Against the Thunder, the Mavericks had a tough task to stop two great perimeter scorers (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant) and they were successful mainly because the Thunder don’t/didn’t have any real interior threat that could punish the Mavs for their extra attention on the perimeter. 

The problem is that the Miami Heat has Chris Bosh and he is playing really well as of late. The Mavericks can’t adopt the same strategy against the Heat because they will be crushed by Bosh.

Miami struggled against Dallas in the regular season – they were swept by losing both games (I remember that the same thing happened against the Bulls) but those were distant days. Miami offense is much better now… 

The Heat had some rebounding problems against Chicago, which was normal because Chicago is simply the best rebounding team in the league but they handled such handicap quite well with the introduction of Haslem and Mike Miller into the rotation. 

Because the Mavericks aren’t a good rebounding team and because these two players will get major minutes, I expect the Heat to have a crucial edge in this pivotal department.

For this contest we have a totals line of 188 points. Both teams had several days off but rust won’t be an issue for tonight in my opinion. My projected line is 193/195 points so we have some edge with the Over as well.

After saying this, why I’m taking the Mavericks tonight?

Well, I give the edge to the Mavericks in terms of making the right adjustment for the first game of the series. Remember what happened to the Heat in the first game against the Bulls?! They looked completely surprised by the way the Bulls played! On the other side, the Mavericks have won and cover all the "first games" of the series that they were involved!

Then we are dealing with 4.5 points! Both Miami and Dallas are terrific road teams so the home court edge won’t be a tall order in this series! In almost every game, the Heat’ opponent had real chances to win but the Heat pulled away down the stretch…the Mavericks are the “Heat version of the West” so likely this contest will be decided in the last possession and so we have some edge with the underdogs in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker