NBA Premium Card 05/06

NBA - 705 Miami Heat @ 706 Dallas Mavericks

***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***

Projected Lines: Dallas by 6 | 192 Points

The Dallas Mavericks made the right adjustments for game 2 so it was somehow strange that they had to pull a huge comeback late in order to win that game. 

They managed to rebound better on both ends of the floor so the huge edge that the Heat had in G1 simply disappear. In fact, they were able to outrebound the Heat in G2! For tonight, Miami might have the edge in this department but my no means we will watch a massacre like in G1.

However the biggest difference for Dallas was their offense. Because they rebound better on defense, the Mavs were able to push up the pace and attack early on the shot clock. On other words, Dallas didn’t wait for Miami to settle their tremendous half court defense. According to my pace factor numbers: G1: 83.30 and G2: 87.75! As you can see, G2 was a faster game when compared to G1.  

By playing faster, the Mavs with their terrific ball movement are pretty tough to be stopped. They shot 48% from the field in G2 - probably they won’t be able to shot that good in the next games. However they also committed 20 turnovers so there will be in my opinion a trade off in these 2 areas. No matter what the Heat will bring on the defensive end for tonight, the Mavericks will execute their game!

On the other side I expect the Heat to make some adjustments, especially on offense.

Miami shot 15-22 from the field and 9-30 behind the arc! Yes, they attempted 30 3-pointers! Dallas is packing the paint and the Heat is struggling to have good looks. However we can count with them to improve in two areas: 1) Chris Bosh, he had another bad game by shooting 4-16 FG, as long he’s playing bad, I simply don’t think that he will play always bad! 2) they weren’t aggressive! If I remember, the Heat didn’t have a single free throw in the first quarter! 

I expect tonight’s contest to have at least the same pace of G2, we don’t need them to shot so well the ball like they did in G2 for this game fly over the total posted. The Mavericks will commit less turnovers and the Heat will get more to the FT line so that’s why I’m taking the Over in here.

I’m taking the Mavericks as well. Down the stretch I give the edge to the Mavericks with their better ball movement and better shot selection.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Dallas Mavericks (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 188.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker