BA - 707 Miami Heat @ 708 Dallas Mavericks
***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***
Projected Lines: Dallas by 6 | 190 Points
Game 1: 83.30
Game 2: 87.75
Game 3: 82.80
Game 3 was the slowest game of this series and naturally the Miami Heat took advantage of that. Still, the Mavericks scored 16 fast break points but in such slow paced game, the Heat half court defense is just too good for the Mavericks. For tonight we can expect the Mavericks to do some substantial changes – including one change in the starting lineup.
With all the Superstars players present in these Finals, no one has been so dominant than Dirk Nowitzki! Nowitzki played 42 minutes and the Mavericks were +12 points with him in the court so…THE MAVS WERE -14 POINTS IN THE 6 MINUTES THAT DIRK WAS ON THE BENCH!
Rick Carlisle once again made some dumb/weird substitutions by taking Dirk off the game with just 6 minutes on the game by replacing him for Peja Stojakovic.
By the way, about Peja:
“Peja has played for approx. 50 possession in the Finals and took 5 shots. The Offensive Efficiency with him on the floor is 75.50 and the Mavericks have been outscored by 21 over the three games. His usage rate was cut in half in the Finals. It's one thing that he can't get a shot to go, but he doesn't even get looks against the Heat's defense. That's a problem. Because if he can't provide any offense he is basically useless.”
Because the Heat “big 3” was playing during that stretch, the Mavs obviously were outscored badly by the Heat. Stojakovic was constantly beat by Wade and/or Bosh on the defensive end when he's playing.
Another perspective:
“In the 20 minutes that Dirk Nowitzki has been on the bench resting during the NBA Championships, the Dallas Mavericks have been outscored by 31 points. In the 124 minutes that he played, Dallas has outscored the Miami Heat by 23 points.”
If somehow the Mavericks find a way to be competitive while Dirk is on the bench, then they will be successful.
The good news:
“J.J. Barea with start in place of DeShawn Stevenson for the Dallas Mavericks in its Game 3 battle against the Miami Heat on Tuesday, reports Alex Kennedy. In addition, Brian Cardinal will be in front of Peja Stojakovic in the Mavs' rotation.”
First of all, the Mavs will surprise tonight with this lineup. Barea has been horrible so far in this series but his presence is important because the Mavericks will be able to push more the pace of the game. Because of that I think that the pace of the game will be more similar to G2.
Offensive efficiency numbers:
Game 1: 211.3
Game 2: 214.3
Game 3: 210.3
As you can see, the offensive efficiency numbers have been almost identical in every game so the final outcome of the game(s) has been dictated by the pace factor. I’ve already told that I expect tonight’s contest to be faster than G3 so that’s why I’m taking the Over in here.
I’m also taking the Mavericks tonight. They need badly to win this contest due to the circumstances. The adjustments that they’ll make will be pivotal especially when Dirk is on the bench because when he’s playing, the Mavericks have been the best team.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Dallas Mavericks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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