NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Miami Heat
***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***
Projected Lines: Miami by 1 | 192 Points
Some thoughts about game 1:
The Mavericks did a nice job defensively. They packed the line and forced Miami to beat them from the outside. That’s why the Heat shot only 15-39 FG from 15 or less feet, scored 28 points in the paint and Chris Bosh struggled on the offensive end by shooting 5-18 from the field. They also used some zone defense when Stojakovic and Barea were on the floor. However there were 2 major problems for that:
1) The Heat was able to shot pretty well behind the arc by hitting 11 of their 24 attempts. For several times, the Heat put a shooter on the corner that was wide open;
2) The Heat completely crushed the Mavs on the boards. By my rebounding measures, they had a 59% edge vs. just 41% from the Mavs. With both teams having similar shooting performances, a 16-6 edge on the offensive boards is just too much to overcome.
In my opinion the 1) factor will be compensated from the Heat by a better shooting performance near the basket. Bosh surely won’t have another horrible performance because he really missed some easy shots.
The biggest difference for tonight in my opinion will be the 2) factor. Somehow it reminds me the G1 of the series MIA/CHI when Miami was crushed on the boards by the Bulls. It felt that they weren’t prepared for such aggressiveness and curiously I had the same feeling after watching the first game of the finals.
On the offensive end, the Heat didn’t make any innovation in Game 1. They just played their usual stuff and it was enough to hold the Mavs to 37.3% from the field!
Dallas “shot locs” stats:
At the rim: 8-18 FG
3-9 feet: 4-13 FG
10-15 feet: 2-8 FG
16-23 feet: 2-6 FG
3pts: 9-22 FG
Surprisingly, the Mavs struggled to score in every area but behind the arc! They looked completely off sync since the start and their bench (a clear advantage in this series) was held to just 4-22 FG! 4-22 FROM THE FIELD!
The biggest reason for such bad performance was the LOW pace of that game (pace factor=83.3).
Tyson Chandler said it all after the game:
“We gave them too many offensive rebounds,” Chandler explained. “Either we were taking the ball out of the net or they were getting another shot attempt. We’ve gotta box out, we’ve gotta limit them to one shot and we’ve gotta run.”
By giving so many “second chance” opportunities to the Heat, the Mavericks couldn’t push the pace and so the game was basically a pure half court contest.
For tonight, I expect the Mavs to do a better job on the defensive glass and this will ignite their offense.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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