NBA - 557 Atlanta Hawks @ 558 Miami Heat
Projected Line: Miami by 4 points | 200 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Miami is coming from a great win against Indiana, where they showed some excellent focus and effort. I hadn't seen the Heat so focused for a while and after such a big effort, it's normal that they will relax on their following game tonight. After all, we are talking about a regular season game and Miami "easily" defeated Atlanta on the first three games between these two teams this season.
On the other hand, we have Atlanta being completely underrated on this game. The Hawks lost their last two games at Boston and then at home against Brooklyn. These two games ended a terrible span of games, where Atlanta had no legs whatsoever to say competitive with the Nets last Saturday They had a tough 6-games road trip that ended with their game at Denver, then they returned home to face Philadelphia, just to go play at Boston in a game that went to overtime. To make things worse, they played a back to back game at home against Brooklyn, so no wonder they struggled so much in that game and that's why I took the Under.
For today, Atlanta had two nice days off to rest and prepare this game, so we can expect Atlanta to be at their full force tonight. The Hawks can really hurt Miami in some areas, especially with Al Horford playing so well. This will allow Atlanta to spread the floor with shooters and let Horford work down low. On the last game between these two teams, Miami won at Atlanta by 103-90, on a weird game where Miami outscored the Hawks by 40-17 on the fourth quarter! In that game, Horford dominated Miami with 12-15 FG, 27 points and 9 rebounds, while Atlanta simply outrun the Heat on the offensive end by scoring 23 fast break points! For tonight, I expect a similar game plan for Atlanta, something that will work well against Miami, who is very likely to be a bit lazy in running back to defense tonight.
In normal conditions, this line of 10 points would be acceptable for this contest, but on these specific circumstances, we have great value with Atlanta. Miami's offense will certainly have their usual great numbers, but Atlanta with their clear edge on the frontcourt with Al Horford and with their lethal transition game, they should be able to turn this game into a very competitive high-scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Hawks tonight on a Double Dime Play and the Over on a Single Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 557 Atlanta Hawks (+10) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 557/558 Over 196.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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