NBA - 509 New York Knicks @ 510 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: Golden State by 6 points
It was clear to me that the Warriors ended their Friday night game against Houston dead tired (just like Houston by the way). Of course, with them having a home game against Milwaukee in the following day, it was evident that the Warriors wouldn't be on a nice spot to have a decent game against the Bucks and that was confirmed in the second half of that game. David Lee didn't play that game, but the Warriors were actually up by 48-47 at halftime, but they faded away in the second half by getting outscored by 45-56.
Golden State's backcourt is likely the most talented unit in the league in terms of shooting skills, but they struggle on defense and Milwaukee just torched them with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings shooting a combined of 20-35 (57%) FG. Without David Lee, the Warriors couldn't have a clear edge down low and in fact, they only shot 10-19 FG at the rim and 4-15 FG from 3-9 feet, in a combined of 14-34 FG, so no wonder Golden State lost this game!
On the other hand, the Knicks had received bad news with Amare Stoudemire and they had Carmelo Anthony still out due to the injury, however they pounded the Jazz at home for an easy blowout win last Saturday. The key for their success was some great outside shooting with 13-32 (40.6%) 3pts. As much merit as the Knicks had, they faced the right opponent to bounce back: Utah was playing the final game of a road trip, who was also on a back to back night and when their defense is just #28 on the league on defending pick and roll ball handler plays and also #28 on spot up defense, there isn't much you can do to stop the Knicks's offense, especially when your starting backcourt unit is Mo Williams and Randy Foye! Utah kept giving the Knicks some wide open looks and they just took advantage of that.
The Knicks will start tonight a 5-games road trip in Golden State, on a tough game for them. Golden State's backcourt will have a clear edge over the slow footed Knicks's guards. The NY team is currently starting with Raymond Delton and James White on the backcourt, with Jason Kidd, JR Smith and Pablo Prigioni coming off the bench. The Knicks's lack of speed is evident and that has been their problem all season long. This is why they are just #25 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and so, we will have on this area a clear edge from the Warriors's offense, something important as this is Golden State's most important part of their offense. If their guards can run effectively the pick and rolls, then they are extremely effective.
On the other side, the lack of speed from the Knicks's guards is also a relief for Golden State's defense. The Warriors's defense has been awful for quite some time and one of the main areas where they've been struggling is in stopping the opposing guards from attacking off the dribble and penetrate into the basket. They did a great job against James Harden, but in the following night, they just couldn't stop Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. The Knicks's guards don't have such ability as they are almost exclusively a spot up unit, if we exclude some drives from Raymond Felton.
On the frontcourt battle, with Amare Stoudemire out and Carmelo Anthony playing but banged up, the Knicks won't really have a great skilled frontcourt tonight. These are good news for Golden State, who generally uses David Lee and Carl Landry together on the frontcourt, who can generate a lot of offense, but no defense. Of course Tyson Chandler will dominate the glass, but I don't believe he won't be as impressive as it was in the game played at NY earlier on the season where Chandler had 28 rebounds, including 10 offensive boards! In that game Andrew Bogut didn't play, so Coach Jackson inserted Andris Biedrins in the starting lineup who played just 8 minutes, then Festus Ezeli played just 17 minutes, therefore the Warriors played super small for most of the game and this explains Chandler's huge game.
The Knicks won that game by 109-105, even though Stephen Curry had a historic performance. I don't expect to see Curry having such a stellar game tonight, but the circumstances of this game are clearly different, in comparison to the first game of the season between these two teams. In that game, the Knicks had 2 days off to rest prior to that contest, while the Warriors are on a back to back spot and they're also playing their third game in four nights. They had played a physical battle at Indiana last night, so they were really on a poor spot. This time, the Knicks had to make a huge trip to play this game and they're the team on a poor spot for tonight. In the first game, Golden State was completely dominated on the rebounds, as Andrew Bogut didn't play. Both Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire had great offensive outcomes by shooting a combined of 16-33 FG and 15-17 FT! With Amare out and Carmelo banged up, these performances won't be repeated tonight. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Warriors tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Golden State Warriors (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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