Projected Line: 194 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Boston will play their fourth game in six days and they are coming from a home game against Atlanta last Friday that went to overtime. At least Doc Rivers was able to rotate very well the team and nobody played more than 39 minutes. On the other hand, Oklahoma City will play their third game in four days, with the first two games of this span being on the road at NY against the Knicks and at Charlotte. They are coming back home to face the Celtics on this early game.
I see this very having all the ingredients to be a low scoring game, as not only this will be an early game, as the spot isn't good for both teams. Boston loves to shoot from 16-23 feet and Oklahoma City's defense from this area hasn't been great since the All Star break, however I believe that's a question of effort and they will be better on this National TV game. The Celtics's offense depends a lot from pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions. Oklahoma City's defense is an elite unit on pick and roll ball handler plays, while they are a bit lazy on spot ups and transitions, however I believe they will show good effort on this National TV game. In fact, the Thunder have been quite good on transition defense lately by allowing just 7, 6, 13 and 6 fast break points on their last four contests, after having allowed 23, 21, 15, 14 and 20 fast break points on their previous games. I believe Oklahoma City will have a nice defensive game today, as they won't have a very tough task. When Boston is on a poor spot, they show a really ugly offense. They don't rebound, they don't attempt free throws and so, they need to have a high FG% to be competitive, something hard on tough spots as they almost exclusively only shoot from the perimeter.
The good news for Boston is that they have been showing an elite defense lately! Their pick and roll ball handler defense is amazing and Russell Westbrook will struggle much more than he did against the Lakers or the Knicks. The Celtics are also #2 on post up defense and we will have Kevin Garnett defending Serge Ibaka. Boston is excellent on doing close outs on the perimeter by being #2 on the league in spot up defense! Then, Paul Pierce and especially Jeff Green (who has been great lately) will give Kevin Durant a tough matchup as well. The only mismatch will be on transitions, however the Celtics will try to avoid getting crushed by the Thunder's quick transitions by setting a slow pace on the game.
Boston's pace on their last 10 games were the following: 84.36; 86.82; 92.37; 89.88; 89.74; 86.23; 98.40; 97.42; 87.90; 87.50. As you can see, the pace was only quick in two games: 98.40 vs Golden State and 97.42 vs Philadelphia. On these two games, Boston had three days of rest prior to that game, while their opponent was playing their third game in four nights, so Boston tried to run to take advantage of the spot edge. This won't happen today, as the Celtics are on a poor spot and the Thunder have a lot more athleticism than the Warriors and the Sixers, so no way Doc Rivers will want to see his team running against Oklahoma City. The Celtics's games at Denver and at Utah had a pace factor of just 86, on a clear sign that Boston slows down the pace on this kind of games to avoid getting run over by their opponents's athleticism.
On the first game played between these two teams earlier on the season, both teams were playing with one day off. Boston had lost at home with San Antonio, while Oklahoma City had defeated the Clippers on overtime. Things are completely different this time and so, I don't expect to see this game being the high scoring affair that the first game played between these two teams was. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 200,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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