Projected Line: Indiana by 14 points
Orlando was one second away from making the biggest upset of the season last Wednesday at Miami. It isn't the first time that I watch Orlando having a huge second half, this has been the norm this season. In fact, the same had happened at New Orleans last Monday, where they outscored the Hornets by 69-56 in the second half. I have to give credit to their coach Jacques Vaughn, who has been able to make some great in-game adjustments for his team. The Magic was able to be competitive at Miami mostly thanks to Nikola Vucevic, who simply dominated the entire Heat frontcourt. In 42 minutes, he had 11-16 FG, 25 points and 21 rebounds! He even had a nice 4 assists mark as well! With this domination, Orlando grabbed 60% of the rebounds and had a nice 15-7 edge on offensive rebounding. This prevented Miami from having their usual share of transition points, with just 8 fast break points. Both teams shot 6-28 from behind the line and so, Orlando was able to fight with Miami until the last possession of the game.
On the other hand, Indiana had a tough loss at home against Boston, who was on a back to back spot. This loss was especially tough for the Pacers, as they didn't score a single point on the last four minutes of the game. This is possibly a bad sign for them on the playoffs, as their offensive execution was poor down the stretch. On the other side, you really need to watch the decisive play for Boston on the last play of the game. It was a beautiful designed play by Doc Rivers! Indiana dominated the rebounds as usual, they held the Celtics to 41% FG and just 9 FT attempts, but their offensive flow was horrible with just 12 assists, a season low!
On tonight's game, I don't believe Orlando will have any edge down low with Vucevic like they had at Miami. Indiana has the most physical interior defense in the league by being #1 on paint defense and rim defense, so with Vucevic struggling to create easy points for his team, Orlando's offense will struggle. We have seen that last Sunday against Memphis, where the Magic scored just 82 points! With the Magic's offense stopped, I believe the Pacers will have a natural bounce back on offense. Indiana has a size edge in almost every position against Orlando, so it's expected that the Pacers will just pound the Magic on the down low with David West and Roy Hibbert, forcing Orlando defense to overhelp down low, something that will give space to Indiana's perimeter players to make some easy uncontested shots.
Indiana has been a very competent team on the road this season against lowly opponents by going 9-2 SU and ATS, something that tells us about their mindset of not relaxing on this kind of games. On the last game between these two teams, Indiana was clearly defeated by Orlando 97-86, on the Pacers's worst spot of the season: 4th game in 5 nights. Indiana had no legs and allowed Orlando to shoot 12-21 3pts, while they shot 2-17 3pts. This won't happen tonight and the Pacers should have a very easy win this time. I'll be taking the Pacers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801 Indiana Pacers (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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