Monday, March 4, 2013

NBA Premium Play 03/03: Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers


NBA - 817 Atlanta Hawks @ 818 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: 210 points

We have in here several edges that favor both offenses. Atlanta's speed will be a major problem for the Lakers's defense. First of all, on the perimeter Atlanta's quick guards Jeff Teague and Devin Harris will be a problem for the Lakers's slow footed guards on transitions: Atlanta is #6 in the league on transitions with 1.17 PPP, while the Lakers #24 in the league on transition defense with 1.17 PPP allowed. Then, Al Horford is dominating the league since February and he will be guarded 1*1 by Dwight Howard for most of the game. Horford's mid-range shooting will be a problem for Howard, who will have to leave his comfort zone to go defend Horford away from the basket. The Hawks's offense has a very sloppy game at Phoenix with 21 turnovers, but I expect them to bounce back today. 

On the other side, the Lakers's offense is also playing very well lately and they have good edges tonight. First of all, nobody will be able to defend Dwight Howard. Zaza Pachulia is limited physically and he hasn't been playing more than 20 minutes and all the other frontcourt players simply can't hang around with Howard. Kobe Bryant has been also playing very well and Atlanta doesn't have any good individual defenders to guard Kobe. Devin Harris is too short, DeShawn Stevenson doesn't have speed anymore, so Kobe Bryant will have a big game tonight. As Atlanta has all the advantages in pushing up the pace today, I expect a fast paced contest in here with both offenses showing good production. Therefore, I believe this will be a very high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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