NBA - 501 Golden State Warriors @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: 200 points
Golden State lost last night at Boston, but they didn't lose because of their bad spot. They lost because the Celtics were a horrible matchup for them. Golden State made some changes on the pick & rolls with Klay Thompson, but nothing really worked against the Celtics's excellent pick & roll and perimeter defense. Boston's defense was able to remove all the Warriors's offensive flow. Stephen Curry had a very tough matchup against Avery Bradley's aggressiveness, even though Curry was still able to draw five fouls on his direct opponent and had ten free throws in the game. But that wasn't enough, as Boston completely stopped Golden State's pick and roll game even when Curry played off the ball. Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack didn't do anything special during the game and that ruined the Warriors's offensive flow. David Lee and Carl Landry would get the ball away from their comfort zone and the result of all of this was 34% FG, 5-23 3pts and only 17 assists!
If Boston was a tough matchup for the Warriors's offense, that won't happen today with the Sixers's defense, who lack the same aggressive defense that Boston has. We know that Coach Jackson is forced to small lineups and now that they'll face the undersized Sixers, that won't change today. Golden State comes from facing a team that is #1 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense, but they'll face an opponent that is just #20 on this area while allowing 0.80 PPP!
So, the key question in here will be to know if Philadelphia will have a good offensive game or not today. The Sixers are currently on a 12 games streak where they were unable to reach the 100 points mark. They are averaging an offensive rating of 98.2 on their last five games, however they will have a very favorable offensive matchup tonight. We know that Golden State will play small ball with David Lee and Carl Landry on the frontcourt, while using for a while a 3-guards lineup with Stephen Curry, Jarrett Jack and Klay Thompson. These are good news for Philadelphia, as Thaddeus Young will then have a good matchup against David Lee, Jrue Holiday will also have a good offensive matchup against Stephen Curry, while the same will happen to Evan Turner against Klay Thompson. These three players from the Warriors aren't good defensive players, so Philadelphia's most talented players will have good individual matchups to shine tonight. Golden State is 9-1 Over on back to back games on the road this season and their mindset for tonight won't definitely be focused on shutting down the Sixers's offense, but to try to outscore them. Therefore, I expect this game to be a very high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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