NBA - 501 Los Angeles Clippers @ 502 Indiana Pacers
Projected Line: 184 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Indiana has been on fire lately and they've been winning games by being red hot on offense or by executing a shutdown on defense. I believe they will use the second way to be competitive on this contest. Indiana's defense has been amazing throughout the whole season, but when they blowout their opponents on offense, the truth is that their defense gets a bit lazy. However, they don't have a good offensive spot tonight, so I believe they will put a big effort on defense.
First of all, we need to analyze the matchup between the Pacers's offense and the Clippers's defense. Ian Mahinmi will start at Center for the Pacers, as Roy Hibbert is suspended. Jeff Pendergraph will be backing up him. The Pacers's offense is based on post ups. Without Hibbert, I don't believe this will happen that much tonight, however they will still have David West. The Clippers's post up defense is #10 in the league with 0.81 PPP allowed, so they aren't a bad unit. They should be able to do a good defensive job on this area, especially as without Hibbert, the Clippers will be able to put more attention on West. The LA team will possibly put Matt Barnes defending Paul George and this won't be an easy matchup for George on offense, even though he is a top 10 player in the league right now. The Clippers also know how to play tough when it's necessary and so, I don't believe in a big offensive game from the Pacers tonight. Indiana has had four recent great offensive performances against Charlotte, NY Knicks, Detroit and Golden State, but these teams play with little aggression, something that won't happen with the Clippers on this contest.
On the other hand, the Clippers's offense will have a real tough opponent. Their offense is back at a nice level, but they have been facing some nice matchups for them lately. They played at Philadelphia against a Sixers team that is showing no effort nowadays, they faced a no-defense Rockets team without James Harden and Jeremy Lin, they played a veteran Lakers team that has no legs to hang with them, they faced a Jazz team with an old and slow starting backcourt and finally, they faced the Bobcats who are.. well, the Bobcats! The only top ranked defense that the Clippers have faced lately was San Antonio and in that game, the LA team scored just 90 points, while having a poor offensive rating of 99.8! Indiana's defense is a poor matchup for the Clippers, just like they are for the whole league. They are #1 in the league in transition defense, so we won't see the Clippers having easy layups tonight. I know Indiana won't have Hibbert tonight and he is known for being a good defender, but the truth is that Mahinmi has also excellent defensive stats!
Indiana will try to turn this game into a halfcourt contest and without Eric Bledsoe, the Clippers will have to accept that, as they won't be able to set the quick pace that they like to put on their games with their second unit. With the Clippers missing their transition game and with Indiana being also #1 in the league on rim defense with 58% FG allowed, the LA team will struggle big time to be efficient on offense. Therefore, I expect a physical low-scoring affair in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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