NBA - 507 New Orleans Hornets @ 508 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected line: 183 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Even without Love, Minnesota was able to give a huge fight to the Lakers last night. Pekovic came back and he played really well with 8-14 FG 25pts and 13reb, but the Wolves were eventually overpowered by the Lakers frontcourt with Pau and Bynum. The Lakers had the edge on the boards with 17-10 on offensive boards and 41.5 vs 26.3% on offensive rebounds rate! Minnesota's interior defense wasn't good and that's normal as Pau was defended by D. Williams and Bynum by Pekovic. On the offense, the Wolves had a good game. They had problems on the transitions with 1-5 FG, but they were excellent on P&R plays with 7-12 FG 1.33 PPP in Ball Handler and 6-12 FG 1.00 PPP Roll Man. Rubio was excellent with 5-12 FG 15pts and 10 ast. However, his absence today (and for the rest of the season) will force Ridnour to comeback to the PG position and possibly Webster to SG and Wesley to the SF position. Rubio was essential to the P&R plays of the Wolves and without him, they will struggle.
On the other hand, New Orleans will try to set a very slow pace on this game and make this game a half court one, where the Wolves may struggle. The Hornets had no energy to handle the fired up Nuggets and ended up having a blowout loss in Denver last night. They were able to hit their shots in the first half, but they showed no energy, especially in defending the quick transition plays from the Nuggets. So, in the second half, coach Monty Williams went with those guys who were giving him energy and Kaman, Ariza and Ayon rode the bench. In particular, Ayon looked a bit dead out there! This is why Jack was the most used player by the Hornets last night with just 32 minutes! Another thing that I noticed was that the Hornets didn’t play Hornets ball, falling into the up-tempo nature of the game and not grinding it out like they usually do. There was a chain of seven plays in the row in the second quarter where the Hornets shot with 10 seconds or more left on the clock, when they usually use all 24 seconds! Note that this game had a slow pace of 86.5 and still the Nuggets had offensive rates of 130, while scoring 20 fast break points with 7-7 FG in transitions, scoring 62 points in the paint and shooting 30-39 FG at the rim!
I expect a bounce back for the Hornets in terms of effort tonight and knowing that the Wolves offense isn't that good and that they will struggle after a tough game against the Lakers plus being now without Rubio, I expect this game to be played on a slow pace and with both teams being able to play some good defense in here, as their offenses will definitely struggle. So, I came up with a totals projection of 183 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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