NBA - 531 Miami Heat @ 532 Orlando Magic
Projected line: 185 points
After an excellent run on the offense, Miami has cooled a bit offensively. In their last games, Bosh came back and they struggled in their last two games, especially on their outside shooting with 6-19 FG and 5-15 FG on spot ups, while shooting 3-23 3pts! The good part is that Miami's defense has been amazing in their last 3 games by allowing just 89, 96 and 100 offensive rates to their opponents, while their rebounding has been top notch as well. On the other side, Orlando after losing in Charlotte had two nice offensive games with Howard and the outside game working very well. They had a super volume in 3pts with 13-35, 11-26 and 10-27 3pts in their last 3 games! In the two previous games between these two teams this season, we had a pace of 85.5 so we can expect a slow paced contest for tonight as well.
The matchup between these two teams is tough for both offenses. These two teams are efficient in transition and offensive boards, but they are also elite teams in defending these areas, with just an edge for Miami on post up plays and Orlando in spot up plays. In the first two games, Orlando barely shot at the rim with 8-18 FG and 10-16 FG, with Miami's great defensive pressure forcing them to shoot a lot from the outside with 17-42 and 11-29 3pts! On the other side, Orlando with Howard is a great defensive team at the rim and Miami with their struggling outside game may have offensive problems on this matchup. Therefore, I believe these two teams will have some offensive problems tonight and so, I'll take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 531/532 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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