NBA Free Premium Play 03/13: Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies

LA Lakers  at Memphis  NBA - 537 Los Angeles Lakers @ 538 Memphis Grizzlies Projected line: LA Lakers by 4 points Memphis is coming from a nice win in Denver where they had a bizarre offensive game, with a lot of effectiveness, but impossible to replicate for this contest. The Grizzlies shot 12-18 FG at the rim and 2-5 FG from 3-9feet, this means a huge volume on the outside and this was exactly what happened with 16-29 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-15 3pts! We are talking about 61% of their shots being from 16 feet or further! Of course that by shooting so much from the outside, Memphis was completely outrebounded by 21 vs 40.5 in offensive rebound rates! Looking at the Grizzlies plays in that game, they shot 13-21 FG on spot up plays with 1.36 PPP! Already in their game at Phoenix, they had a similar approach with 10-31 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-14 3pts! Tonight against the powerful frontcourt of the Lakers, Memphis will surely have the same mindset. However, Rudy Gay is out for tonight and this is a huge blow for the Grizzlies. On the other hand, the Lakers are coming from a nice win at home against Boston, where they took advantage of their size edge to squash them on the boards. Having in account the fact that Memphis just grabbed 40% of the rebounds in their last two games, I expect the Lakers to have a huge rebounding edge on tonight's contest. The Lakers main problem has been with the turnovers, with 17 and 18 in their last two games, while Boston shot 7-13 FG in transition and scored 21 fast break points against them. Therefore, Memphis will have an edge on this area, even though they won't be as good as they use to be, as Gay will be out for tonight. In the first game of the series, the Lakers won at home in a big game from Gay. In that game, Kobe refused to pass the ball and the Lakers had just 6-11 FG at the rim and 7-13 FG from 3-9 feet. However, I expect the Lakers to explore the size edge better this time and with their huge edge on the boards and the Grizzlies' struggles in executing their normal game without Gay, I expect the Lakers to have a good and rare road win tonight. I'm taking the Lakers in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 537 LA Lakers (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker