NBA - 801 Miami Heat @ 802 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected line: 185 points | Philadelphia by points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
***SINGLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***
This is an important game for Philadelphia, who after their win against the Bulls confirmed themselves as an elite team! Since then, this is immediately a revenge game from their loss at Miami plus their loss against Miami in the playoffs series last season. Matchup wise, Philadelphia's defense is a tough matchup for the Heat's offense! I mean, Philadelphia is the #1 ranked defense in the league, so they are a tough matchup for any team, but they are specially tough for Miami. Why? First of all, Philadelphia is simply the best team in the league in not committing turnovers with a low 10.97 TO/rate and 10.37 in their last 5 games! By not committing turnovers, this won't give many chances for Miami to score in transition and as that wasn't enough, Philadelphia is also #3 in defending transition plays by allowing just 1.00 PPP! Second of all, Philadelphia doesn't send their opponents to the FT line, as they are the 4th best team in the league with 23.8% opp FT/rate and as we know, Miami is one of the teams in the league with more FT attempts per game. With no free throws and fast breaks for Miami today, Philadelphia will turn this game into a halfcourt one! Considering Philadelphia has the best perimeter defense in the league, we can expect Iguodala guarding Lebron and Turner guarding Wade quite well, which will bring problems to Miami, especially when the Heat are coming from a game at Milwaukee where they didn't show any offensive flow! They had a red hot Lebron in the 1st quarter, but then they couldn't have any flow against a good Bucks defense!
On the other side, I also expect Philadelphia's offense to have some problems against the excellent rim defense of Miami, as they continue to be without their two centers Hawes and Vucevic! Without their interior game, Philadelphia will be dependent from their exterior game and Miami is also a great perimeter defensive team. In the last game between these two teams, Miami won by 113-92, in a game where I took the under on a Triple Dime and Miami on a Double Dime! The spot was terrible for Philadelphia in that game (3rd game in 4 days + back to back vs rested Miami) and I remember that the previous two games of the Sixers had been a physical contest against Denver that went to overtime and a tough win against Atlanta, where they won by 90-76, but they were trailing at halftime by 39-47, so this was really a tough spot for them! That game had a low pace (86) with Philadelphia having a decent offensive game, but Miami having basically their best game of the season, with an offensive rate of 131.9, when the Sixers second worst defensive showing has been their game at Utah early in the game, when they had a defensive rate of 110.1! The weirdest thing was that Miami just scored 12 fast break points and had 21 FT attempts, so their efficiency had to come from the outside, with 5-8 FG from 10-15 feet, 14-25 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-16 3pts! Honestely, I don't believe Miami will be ready to repeat such numbers on the road against Philadelphia on a much better spot this time and who will be fired up to get revenge today!
I believe Miami is still struggling on half court sets and the Sixers defense will expose these struggles and make this game a really low scoring contest. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection of 185 points, low enough for me to take the under in here in a Triple Dime Play! Considering Philadelphia's mindset for tonight and how they have been playing at home this season, while also looking to Miami's problems on offense, I'll be also taking Philadelphia tonight.
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 1 unit on 802 Philadelphia 76ers ML @ +110 / 2.10 on Bookmaker
Pick: 2 units on 802 Philadelphia 76ers (+2) @ +110 / 2.10 on 5 Dimes
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