NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Orlando Magic
Projected lines: 185 points | pk line
***TOP PLAY***
Miami is on a tough spot by playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and being also a back to back game. They are coming from a tough home win against Cleveland, where Lebron was forced to play 39 minutes, Bosh 36 minutes and Wade 35 minutes! The Heat continue to play a lot of 1*1 and they have only dished 19, 15 and 18 assists on their last 3 games. They have been also having some problems in terms of boards, with just an average of 47.90% on boards over their last four games. So, Miami may have some problems today due to their lack of a good ball movement and in the 3 key areas where Miami is very efficient on offense (rim: 66%FG avg. 68%FG L5 32.7%Vol; 3-9 feet 41%FG avg. 41%FG L5; 16-23 feet: 40%FG avg. 38%FG L5), Orlando has been defending really well in their last 5 games with 55% FG allowed at the rim, 33% FG from 3-9 feet and 30% FG from 16-23 feet! On a bad spot against a hungry team, this is a potential fade alert for the Heat's offense! Miami has been averaging 105.5 offensive rates on back to back games vs 111 of season average!
On the other side, Orlando is coming from a good game against the Clippers, where Nelson played really well by being great in the pick-and-roll and was probably more aggressive than he has been all season. Nelson didn’t shoot the ball all that well (5-of-13) from the field, but he scored 15 points and dished out 12 assists while turning the ball over three times. Van Gundy praised Nelson’s play and defended his shot selections, saying the media only calls his shots bad shots “because he didn’t make them.”
Orlando will struggle to score at the rim due to Miami's great rim defense, but their game is mostly based from the perimeter, where they are now better with a healthy roster composed by Nelson, J Rich, Hedo, Redick and Anderson, with Orlando having an edge against Miami's only weak part of their defense: #23 on spot up defense by allowing 1.00 PPP, while Orlando is #3 on spot up offense with 1.03 PPP. These two teams barely commit any fouls and they have excellent opp FT/rates. I expect an overall struggle from both offenses, as they will have face a good defensive team and therefore, I'll take the under in here in a Double Dime Play! Considering Miami's tough spot and Orlando's edge on the outside shooting, I'll be also taking the Magic in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 191.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Orlando Magic (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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