NBA - 703 Golden State Warriors @ 704 Denver Nuggets
Projected line: 209 points | Denver HT by 6 points
Denver is coming from a game last night against Dallas, where the Mavs had a good spot with a few days to rest and their offense really resembled their great playoffs run last season, with an excellent ball movement, with good spacing and always making the extra pass! The result of that was 30 assists for the Mavs in 44 FG made! They looked amazing in the perimeter, committed less turnovers than the Nuggets and won the boards battle with 26.8 vs 18.6 offreb/rate! Dallas was really good on post up plays with 13-28 FG and 1.14 PPP and also on pick and rolls! On the other side, Denver didn't attack the rim with just 15-21 FG, however note that Dallas is a defensive team at the rim, but still Denver should have had a bit more volume on this area! The Nuggets on back to back games are averaging a pace of 93.87, offensive rates of 105.82 and defensive rates of 107.14, however note that they had just tow terrible defensive games which set their average to a poor level: 127.91 defensive rates at Portland and 128 at San Antonio! So, will Denver be able to stop the Warriors offense tonight, after being completely crushed by Dallas last night?
Golden State is coming from a shootout against Oklahoma City, but where the Thunder's mindset was different from Denver's mindset for this contest. Oklahoma City was coming from an OT win at Portland and on a back to back game, they entered the pace of the Warriors and had a shootout mindset. The Thunder had no interior defense, with the Warriors shooting 19-24 FG at the rim, with Monta shooting 10-11 FG at the rim! Golden State was able to be highly efficient on their pick and rolls, with 6-10 FG on ball handler and 7-8 FG on roll man, while also shooting 7-10 FG on transition! But coming from 4 losses in their last 4 games, Denver will come to this game with a lot of aggression and they will create takeaways and they will especially aggressive on the inside. Golden State's rebounding has been terrible lately and I expect Denver to also pound the Warriors poor interior defense, especially with Nene having a clear physical edge over Lee and Affalo on Monta. The matchup between Lawson and Curry will also favor the Nuggets.
I expect a very fast start from Denver tonight, looking to bounce back from a tough stretch of losses lately. Therefore, I will take the Nuggets on the first half. Looking at how aggressive the Nuggets will be tonight, I expect them to be able to cause some problems on the Warriors offense, something that should be enough to take this game under the posted total, considering the high line of this game. So, I'll also take the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 212 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Denver Nuggets FIRST HALF (-3) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
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