NBA - 705 Houston Rockets @ 706 Phoenix Suns
Projected line: Phoenix by 12 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
This is a really bad spot for Houston, as they will play their 3rd game in 4 nights, having played at Portland last night. They faced Phoenix at home, then played in the following night in Minnesota, then played at Denver, then at Portland and they will play tonight in Phoenix, in a back to back spot! Meanwhile, Phoenix had one day off to rest and they will surely look for revenge, as they were crushed at Houston last week! Yesterday, the Rockets bench was excellent, so the starters didn't play a lot of minutes, however Lowry is doubtful for today and he is by the far the best player in the team. On offense, the net difference of him being on the court or not is +5.12 offensive rates and on defense, the net difference is +8.10 defensive rates! It's obvious that the Rockets are a much better team with him on the court on both ends of the floor! His presence would also be a key for tonight's matchup against Nash!
In that game at Houston, where the Rockets won by 99-81, with 59-39 at half time, Nash had a poor game with 2-5 FG 9ast and 4TO! Phoenix, who used to be an excellent P&R team, shot just 4-13 FG on ball handler plays with 0.47 PPP! They also shot just 6-17 FG on spot ups with just 1.00 PPP! These numbers were weird because the Rockets defense isn't good at defending pick & rolls (#19 in P&R ball handler with 0.81 PPP allowed and #28 in roll man with 1.10 PPP). But now Phoenix is on a good run, with a red hot offense coordinated by Steve Nash and in their last three games, they had offensive rates of 109, 118 and 119! They have also improved on boards and for today, we have Phoenix playing at home, on a good spot, with revenge, while having a clear edge over the Rockets defense on pick and rolls, especially with the Rockets playing without Lowry tonight.
When Lowry missed two games against Oklahoma City, Houston had defensive rates of 121 and 110 in those games, while having offensive rates of 107 in both games! I expect Phoenix to have another very good win today and therefore, I will take the Suns in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 706 Phoenix Suns (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment