Friday, February 10, 2012

NBA Premium Play 02/09: Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics


NBA - 701 Los Angeles Lakers @ 702 Boston Celtics

Projected line: pk line

This is a good spot for the Lakers, as they played at Philadelphia and then had two days off to rest. They were able to practice and this might be the key to fix some problems they have been having lately: “He was a little chippy today,” said Kobe Bryant. “He’s such a defensive-oriented coach, there were a lot of things that he saw that we needed to go over, because this was only really our third practice of the season.”; In addition to shoring up the defense, Brown said the team worked on spacing and ball movement, which have improved markedly since early in the season, but are still not where the coaching staff ultimately want. The team will focus more closely on Boston at Thursday’s shootaround. 

I expect this game to be played at a super slow pace due to their head to head history, as also because of what the two teams have been showing this season. So, on a half court game, I believe the Lakers to have the same chances of winning than Boston tonight. The Lakers will have an edge on rebounding, something Boston has been struggling this season and the size edge of the Lakers will be crucial, as Boston has been having problems in the center position, with Jermaine battling nagging injuries and basically the Celtics lack someone who can stop Bynum! Even though the Lakers don't use their frontcourt on offense like they should, at least this will allow the Lakers to have a clear board edge tonight, as recently even Varejao completely dominated the Celtics frontcourt is back to back games!

Kobe is now healthy and down the stretch, he might be the key of this game. Naturally, Boston's biggest edge will be Rondo against the Lakers backcourt. However, we are talking about a half court game with few chances of transitions and so, this edge won't be well explored by Boston today, especially as Rondo is still struggling a bit, considering the fact that since his comeback from injury three games ago, he hasn't been aggressive at all, with 3-8 FG, 2-6 FG and 4-8 FG! 

The Lakers actually played a good game at Philadelphia and they were just beaten by the 2nd unit key of the Sixers. Looking at the Celtics thin bench, especially considering to the Sixers bench, I don't expect anything similar to happen tonight. I expect the Lakers to take advantage of this good spot for them and make this game at least highly competitive. Therefore, I will take the Lakers tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Los Angeles Lakers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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