NBA Free Premium Play 04/03: Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors

Washington  at Toronto

NBA - 503 Washington Wizards @ 504 Toronto Raptors  Projected Line: 197 points The Wizards defeated Chicago at home yesterday and without using their starters a lot. In fact, it was the Wizards's bench that was the key for their win. Only John Wall played 37 minutes, with all the other starters playing 28 minutes or less than that. When I first started looking at this rematch from last Sunday, I had a pre-game lean on Toronto due to a potential letdown spot for Washington, especially after a big win against the Bulls last night. I was expecting to see the Wizards's starters playing around 40 minutes yesterday, but they didn't, so I don't expect them to be on a typical "dead legs" spot tonight. Their game was against the Bulls was a classic grind out game. That wasn't a surprise because that Chicago's style. Things will be different tonight, as Toronto's defense doesn't have a tenth of the quality of the Bulls's defense. The Raptors had a defensive rating of 120 of worse on seven of their last eight games, while allowing 42.6% 3pts over their last 10 games and showing a horrible transition defense with 1.30 PPP allowed! These are good news for Washington, who is crushing their opponents in transition with John Wall, while they have been also solid from behind the line. So, it isn't a surprise that Washington torched Toronto with 9-17 3pts and 16 fast break points last Sunday night, for a total of 109 points scored. While I don't expect Washington to have such a great offensive game tonight, I expect Toronto to have better numbers than they had last Sunday. It's important to note that the Raptors scored 25+25+26 points on the first three quarters, just to score 16 points on the final quarter. I've been criticizing the Raptors's ball movement lately since the Rudy Gay trade, but the truth is that they have been showing some improvement on that area with 20, 25, 21 and 24 assists on their last four games, while they had only dished 17, 16, 15, 18, 19 and 13 assists on their previous six games! After their big game yesterday against Chicago, I don't expect the Wizards to be fully focused on this game, especially on defense. However, I believe the Wizards will take advantage of the several open looks they will have on offense tonight, turning this game into a high scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 04/03: Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

Kansas City  at Chicago White Sox

MLB - 915 Kansas City Royals @ 916 Chicago White Sox (Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs J. Peavy) Erwin Santana had an weird but interesting Spring Training with a 21/4 K/BB ratio over 23 innings. He was quite hittable on the preseason (30 hits allowed), however he played really well against the White Sox last season with a 2.08 ERA in two starts, while showing a great command with a 14/2 K/BB ratio. Santana is allowing just .239 BA and .664 OPS to the current White Sox's roster, so I believe he will have a good outing today. Santana's best pitch is his slider by far, a kind of pitch that made the White Sox's batters struggled last season, as they were just #23 in the league on this area. Santana's main problem is the fact that he is homerun-prone, but I don't think that will get exposed today on such cold temperatures. On the other hand, Jake Peavy was quite poor in Spring Training with a 7.88 ERA in two starts. Peavy struggled against the Royals last season with a 5.68 ERA in three outings against Kansas City. In fact, the current Royals's roster hits very well against him with a .322 BA and .836 OPS! Kansas City is an improved team this season and I expect them to put Peavy in trouble once again today. As Santana has a good matchup today, I believe we have good value in taking the Royals as underdogs today. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ E. Santana) @ +135 / 2.35 on 5Dimes

NBA 04/02 Advanced Stats Numbers

Chicago at Washington							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CHI	24	25	20	17	86		86.63	98.40	0.42	6.79	22.64	12.36
WAS	18	24	28	20	90			104.82	0.46	10.06	23.26	23.08
New York at Miami							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
NY	27	23	28	24	102		82.89	121.01	0.62	14.93	19.35	19.72
MIA	25	33	18	14	90			110.45	0.57	21.77	28.00	36.67
Dallas at L.A. Lakers							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
DAL	21	19	21	20	81		89.18	92.44	0.46	13.09	17.39	7.41
LAL	24	31	17	29	101			111.31	0.49	15.86	39.58	25.93

MLB Premium Play 04/02: St Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: J. Garcia vs T. Cahill)

Arizona will start Trevor Cahill tonight and he looked very impressive on his last Spring Training outing, where he struck out 11 players over 5.2 innings! In fact, he had a 1.86 ERA and 25/5 K/BB ratio on 19 innings during the preseason!  Cahill has also good numbers against the current Cardinals's roster by allowing just .226 BA and .746 OPS against them. Therefore, I expect Cahill to have a quality outing tonight.

On the other hand, Jaime Garcia is healthy and he worked a lot during Spring Training with 29 innings played! He was very impressive in those innings with a 2.48 ERA and a 24/5 K/BB ratio! In fact, he pitched six straight innings at Houston and 8 innings against Washington on his last two preseason outings. It seems clear to me that Garcia is still feeling his future is at risk after what happened with him in last year's postseason and so, he has been working very hard to show his team that he can be quite valuable on their rotation. Arizona's current roster is hitting .188 BA against Garcia in 32 AB's, so I expect to see the Cardinals's SP for tonight dominating the Diamondbacks with ease. 

I like the Under having in account what I've seen from both pitchers during Spring Training, while I also like the Cardinals tonight, as not only they have more firepower on their batters than the Diamondbacks, as Garcia is also seeming to be in excellent form right now. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Under and St. Louis tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953/954 Under 9 (w/ J. Garcia & T. Cahill) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ J. Garcia) @ +102 / 2.02 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/02: San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 955 San Francisco Giants @ 956 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: M. Bumgarner vs H. Ryu)

Madison Bumgarner had a really good Spring Training, where he really looked more than ready for the regular season. He ended the preseason with a 2.29 ERA and a 18/7 K/BB ratio in 19.2 innings. He pitched for over four innings each on his last three Spring Training starts and he had excellent starts at Texas, at home against Cincinnati and at Arizona, so he is already in mid-season form and ready to have a similar quality performance that both Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw had yesterday on the first game of this series. 

On the other hand, Hyun-Jin Ryu is making his MLB debut today, after a very good career in the Korean Professional Baseball League. He was the second pitcher in the league with more innings played during Spring Training and he had a decent record with a 3.29 ERA and a 27/8 K/BB ratio. If it's true that San Francisco doesn't know Ryu and therefore the Korean pitcher has the surprise factor working for him today, it's also true that Ryu will debut tonight on a high-pressure game against the reigning World Champions, on a game where he will have a pitcher duel with a very good SP and therefore, any error by Ryu will cost his team a lot today.

Considering the fact that this game is very likely to be a low-scoring affair as the Totals Line are indicating, I see a lot of value on San Francisco as the slight underdog today. Bumgarner is in very good form right now and we can surely trust him more today than in the Korean Ryu, who will make his MLB debut tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Giants tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ M. Bumgarner) @ -103 / 1.97 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 04/02: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 765 Dallas Mavericks @ 766 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 1 point

I believe Dallas will be super competitive tonight and the key reason for that is Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 25.6 points, 59% FG, 47% 3pts, 90% FT and 7 rebounds on Dallas's last five games! The most incredible fact is that the Mavericks haven't been facing scrub teams like the Lakers lately! Dallas faced Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Boston, Utah, LA Clippers, Indiana and Chicago on their last eight games. All teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today! Offensively, Dallas will have a clear edge in transition tonight, even though I don't think Dallas will try to take a lot of advantage from that tonight, as I expect the Mavericks to try to set a halfcourt pace at times to expose Pau Gasol's slowness on the matchup that he will have against Dirk Nowitzki. 

So, the question in here will be to know what the Lakers's offense will do against the Mavericks's defense. On the last game between these two teams, the Lakers won at Dallas with a super sharp outside game: 13-25 3pts! The Lakers used Kobe Bryant as their main PG for almost the whole game, with Steve Nash playing off the ball. This is why Nash had 4 assists in that game, while Kobe had 7. The goal was to take advantage of Dallas's poor positional defense at the PG position and that worked very well, with Kobe Bryant being completely unstoppable in the 4th quarter, while Steve Nash also had a good game with 7-12 FG and 4-5 3pts for a 20 points performance!

But things will be completely different tonight. Kobe Bryant is banged up, while Steve Nash and Metta World Peace are out due to injury. As Steve Blake isn't half the shooter that Steve Nash is, Dallas will be able to focus on Kobe Bryant, besides the fact that the Mavericks won't be surprised by the Lakers tonight like they did in the previous game. Of course the Lakers will have the edge down low with Dwight Howard, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mavericks use a zone defense to mess around with the Lakers's offense. I expect this game to be a fast paced game, but where the Mavericks's depth edge might make the difference down the stretch. I expect this game to be a pure ball game and right now I wouldn't want to bet against a team that has a red hot Dirk Nowitzki! Therefore, I'll be taking the Mavericks plus the points tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765 Dallas Mavericks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 04/02: Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays

Cleveland  at Toronto

MLB - 959 Cleveland Indians @ 960 Toronto Blue Jays (Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs R. Dickey) Justin Masterson struggled during Spring Training with a 4.76 ERA in 22.2 innings, however he had a great command with a 26/6 K/BB ratio! Masterson's problem is that he has been very hittable. On his last three starts, he allowed a considerable number of hits and runs, even though he had 6, 7 and 7 strikeouts in those outings. Masterson generally struggles against LH batters due to his heavy reliance on his sinker. He had a 3.15 FIP and 3.35 xFIP against RH batters last season, while he had a poor 4.95 FIP and 4.77 xFIP against LH batters last year. Toronto will have a bunch of lefties on their lineup tonight (Retes, Cabrera, Lind, Rasmus, Izturis and Bonifacio), while the other two RH batters of the lineup are Bautista and Encarnacion, two of the most dangerous batters in the whole league! On the other side, R.A. Dickey pitched just 5 innings during Spring Training, but he also played for the US team on WBC. However, Dickey struggled during these five innings that he played during the preseason. Dickey had better numbers against RH batters than against LH batters last season. He had a 3.05 FIP and 3.14 xFIP against RH batters, while he had a 3.55 FIP and 3.43 xFIP against LH batters. Cleveland's lineup for tonight will be full of LH batters, while they were #7 in OPS during Spring Training. Therefore, I expect Cleveland to be able to put Dickey in a bit of trouble tonight as well. With Toronto pounding Masterson and with Dickey also prone to some troubles tonight against the Indians's left handed batters, I expect this game to be a high scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959/960 Over 8,5 (w/ J. Masterson & R. Dickey) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker