NBA Premium Play 04/02: Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 765 Dallas Mavericks @ 766 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Line: LA Lakers by 1 point

I believe Dallas will be super competitive tonight and the key reason for that is Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 25.6 points, 59% FG, 47% 3pts, 90% FT and 7 rebounds on Dallas's last five games! The most incredible fact is that the Mavericks haven't been facing scrub teams like the Lakers lately! Dallas faced Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Boston, Utah, LA Clippers, Indiana and Chicago on their last eight games. All teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today! Offensively, Dallas will have a clear edge in transition tonight, even though I don't think Dallas will try to take a lot of advantage from that tonight, as I expect the Mavericks to try to set a halfcourt pace at times to expose Pau Gasol's slowness on the matchup that he will have against Dirk Nowitzki. 

So, the question in here will be to know what the Lakers's offense will do against the Mavericks's defense. On the last game between these two teams, the Lakers won at Dallas with a super sharp outside game: 13-25 3pts! The Lakers used Kobe Bryant as their main PG for almost the whole game, with Steve Nash playing off the ball. This is why Nash had 4 assists in that game, while Kobe had 7. The goal was to take advantage of Dallas's poor positional defense at the PG position and that worked very well, with Kobe Bryant being completely unstoppable in the 4th quarter, while Steve Nash also had a good game with 7-12 FG and 4-5 3pts for a 20 points performance!

But things will be completely different tonight. Kobe Bryant is banged up, while Steve Nash and Metta World Peace are out due to injury. As Steve Blake isn't half the shooter that Steve Nash is, Dallas will be able to focus on Kobe Bryant, besides the fact that the Mavericks won't be surprised by the Lakers tonight like they did in the previous game. Of course the Lakers will have the edge down low with Dwight Howard, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Mavericks use a zone defense to mess around with the Lakers's offense. I expect this game to be a fast paced game, but where the Mavericks's depth edge might make the difference down the stretch. I expect this game to be a pure ball game and right now I wouldn't want to bet against a team that has a red hot Dirk Nowitzki! Therefore, I'll be taking the Mavericks plus the points tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765 Dallas Mavericks (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker