Projected Line: 168 points | LA Sparks by 6 Points
***TOP PLAY***
The two games already played between these two teams had a pace factor of 72.1 and 76.1. The Sparks are coming from two subpar offensive games before the All Star break, where they scored 65 and 66 points. Of course these two games were against Seattle, a team that is the "Anti-Sparks": dead last in pace & dead last in fast break points per game and so, the Sparks had to play on half court, when they are deadly on transitions by being #1 in the league with 14.9 fast break points per game. Now against Tulsa, the story will be different, as the Shock are dead last in fast break points allowed with 13.8 ppg allowed, they are also turnover prone (#8 in the league) and they are also the worst defensive rebounding team in the league by allowing an offensive rebound rate to their opponents of 31.8%! This is the perfect bounce back scenario for the Sparks and so, I expect them to have a big offensive game in here.
On the other side, Tulsa is also playing much better on offense lately thanks to a good frontcourt offense with Glory Johnson and Liz Cambage scoring a lot of easy points down low. This will be a very tough matchup for the Sparks' defense that is the second worst paint defense in the league by allowing 36.7 ppg! Therefore, I expect both teams to have good offensive outcomes tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here in a Double Dime Play! I also believe that this spread of 9 points favoring LA is too much. LA won at Tulsa earlier in the season by 94-78, but the Shock were playing much worse back then in comparison to their current level. Liz Cambage was in the bench at the time, while she is now super motivated and on the starting lineup, forming a deadly frontcourt duo with Glory Johnson. Therefore, I'll be taking the Shock tonight as well on a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 602 Tulsa Shock (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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