Projected Line: Connecticut by 6 points
Indiana won't have Tamika Catchings tonight and without her, I don't think Indiana's offense will be able to do a lot of damage tonight, even with Erin Phillips back. On the other side, Connecticut's offense was a complete mess on their last three games of the first half of the season. Their guards returned from injury, but they had no competitive rhythm and the Sun ended up shooting 4-16, 2-17 and 1-13 3pts in those games! Now with extra rest, I believe the Sun's perimeter shooting will improve, while Tina Charles will pound the undersized Fever's frontcourt. Therefore, looking at the current spread line, I see enough value to take the Sun in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 652 Connecticut Sun (-3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
WNBA - 653 Phoenix Mercury @ 654 Seattle Storm
Projected Line: 154 points
Brittney Griner will be back in Phoenix's lineup today and even though she is a great defender, the truth is that the Mercury don't know how to use her on defense. Therefore, Phoenix has a better offense (107.7 vs 105.0) and a worse defense (107.3 vs 106.9) when Griner is on the floor. Phoenix has been using some zone defense lately with relative success, as they confuse their opponents, but with Griner back, it doesn't make sense to continue with this tactic. On the other hand, the Mercury's perimeter defense is terrible and with Seattle being a jump shooting team, with no inside presence, they will confuse Phoenix's defense tonight, especially with the returning Griner feeling lost in the middle.
This is why that on the second game of the season, Seattle defeated Phoenix by 75-72, while scoring just 16 points in the paint! Phoenix has the worst defense of the league and they will play at Seattle tonight, who has some confidence now, as they were competitive in back to back games against LA, where they won one game and lost the other by one point. On the other hand, Phoenix will have Brittney Griner back and she will have a great matchup on offense tonight against the undersized Storm frontcourt, while Diana Taurasi will be also back after a 1-game suspension. Phoenix is a very aggressive team, especially with Taurasi on the court, and they are #2 in the league in FT/rate with 32%, while Seattle's defense can't defend without fouling and so, they are dead last in the league in opposing FT/rate with 33%! With these factors in-play, I believe this will be a relatively high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Over 151 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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