WNBA Premium Play 08/04: Tulsa Shock @ San Antonio Silver Stars

WNBA - 603 Tulsa Shock @ 604 San Antonio Silver Stars

Projected Line: Tulsa by 4 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

San Antonio is a well organized team, but with Becky Hammon and Sophia Young out for the season, they simply lack talent to be competitive. Their problems are mostly on the frontcourt and this will be a huge problem against Tulsa, who is now red hot since they started being able to feed their post players down low. The Shock crushed Los Angeles on the down low with 50 points in the paint, with Liz Cambage having 9-11 FG, 10-11 FT and 28 points and Glory Johnson 7-14 FG and 17 points! Tulsa is also crushing the offensive glass and getting a lot of free throws as well. Their only issue has been the turnovers, but they are also improving on this area since their hyped rookie Skylar Diggins got benched for their other rookie PG Angel Goodrich!

San Antonio's lack of size is a big problem for them and of course, the Shock will have a mega edge against them down low. The Silver Stars are the third worst paint defense in the league with 36.8 ppg allowed and they are also the worst defensive rebounding team in the league. The only edge that San Antonio will have today will be in forcing turnovers, where they are #5 in the league with 17.0% opp TO, but they have been struggling a little on this area lately by averaging just 13.4% on their last six games! Therefore, I believe Tulsa's offense will have a good performance today. On the other side, San Antonio's offense continues to struggle by averaging an offensive rating of 87.7 on their last five games! The Silver Stars will have some edge on their perimeter shooting, as the Shock have the third worst 3pts defense of the league by allowing 33.3% 3pts, but that won't be enough for San Antonio to compensate the massive edge that the Shock will have down low. Therefore, I'll be taking Tulsa in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 603 Tulsa Shock (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

WNBA Premium Play 08/02: Los Angeles Sparks @ Tulsa Shock

WNBA - 601 LA Sparks @ 602 Tulsa Shock

Projected Line: 168 points | LA Sparks by 6 Points

***TOP PLAY***

The two games already played between these two teams had a pace factor of 72.1 and 76.1. The Sparks are coming from two subpar offensive games before the All Star break, where they scored 65 and 66 points. Of course these two games were against Seattle, a team that is the "Anti-Sparks": dead last in pace & dead last in fast break points per game and so, the Sparks had to play on half court, when they are deadly on transitions by being #1 in the league with 14.9 fast break points per game. Now against Tulsa, the story will be different, as the Shock are dead last in fast break points allowed with 13.8 ppg allowed, they are also turnover prone (#8 in the league) and they are also the worst defensive rebounding team in the league by allowing an offensive rebound rate to their opponents of 31.8%! This is the perfect bounce back scenario for the Sparks and so, I expect them to have a big offensive game in here.

On the other side, Tulsa is also playing much better on offense lately thanks to a good frontcourt offense with Glory Johnson and Liz Cambage scoring a lot of easy points down low. This will be a very tough matchup for the Sparks' defense that is the second worst paint defense in the league by allowing 36.7 ppg! Therefore, I expect both teams to have good offensive outcomes tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here in a Double Dime Play! I also believe that this spread of 9 points favoring LA is too much. LA won at Tulsa earlier in the season by 94-78, but the Shock were playing much worse back then in comparison to their current level. Liz Cambage was in the bench at the time, while she is now super motivated and on the starting lineup, forming a deadly frontcourt duo with Glory Johnson. Therefore, I'll be taking the Shock tonight as well on a Single Dime Play.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 160.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 602 Tulsa Shock (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

WNBA Free Premium Play 07/19: Connecticut Sun @ Tulsa Shock

WNBA - 603 Connecticut Sun @ 604 Tulsa Shock

Projected Line: Connecticut by 2 points

Connecticut is one of the teams that I really expect to see improvements on their next few games. The Sun had a poor start of the season mostly due to the injuries that they had in the backcourt. Tina Charles is the reigning MVP, but she can't do miracles on her own. The good news is that one of their top guards, Kara Lawson, returned a couple of games ago, while the other top guard, Renee Montgomery, is returning tonight. With these two guards back in combination with Tina Charles down low, Connecticut will automatically improve a lot on offense. Tulsa is coming from a big win at Seattle, where the Storm scored just 59 points, but the truth is that the Shock is still dead last on defensive rates with 107.3! Even a shorthanded Connecticut without Lawson and Montgomery was able to score 88 points against Tulsa on the first game of the season, while shooting 50.8% FG! I expect the Sun to have another big offensive game against the Shock tonight.

Tulsa is coming from a mega blowout 86-59 win at Seattle, but I don't know if we should take this result so seriously. In fact, three of their four wins this season were against Seattle, so it's clear that the Shock have a great matchup with the Storm, but struggle against everybody else. Tulsa will come to tonight's game with a bit more confidence than usual, but they will face a fired up Connecticut, who is looking to start a good run as soon as possible now that they have a healthy backcourt once again. The Sun is definitely a better team than Tulsa and so, I'll be taking them on the moneyline tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Connecticut Sun ML @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

WNBA Premium Play 07/17: Tulsa Shock @ Seattle Storm

WNBA - 601 Tulsa Shock @ 602 Seattle Storm

Projected Line: 138 Points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Tulsa will be without Skylar Diggins today and even though the team's shooting won't get worse because of that as Diggins is shooting around 30's% FG this season, the truth is that she is the only player in the team that is averaging more than 3 assists per game with 4.8 assists/game! Tulsa is the worst defensive team in the league and they struggled on their last two games, where they had defensive ratings of 122.6 and 112.9. However, they faced the #1 and #2 offenses in the league in the LA Sparks and Minnesota. The Shock couldn't stop the opponents' explosiveness and allowed 22 and 21 fast break points in those games.

On the other side, Seattle's defense is being phenomenal lately by averaging a 91.2 defensive rating over their last six games! Their offense has been poor as usual (just 8 assists against Atlanta) and they keep playing at a very slow pace by being dead last in pace factor in the league. Therefore, we can expect today's game to be a half court contest as usual in Seattle's games. This will favor Tulsa, as they won't be their awful transition defense being exposed today, as Seattle is dead last on fast break points scored per game. On the other side, Tulsa's offense in halfcourt without their starting PG promises to be a disaster today, especially against Seattle's elite defense. 

This will be the third game of the season between these two teams, with the Shock having won the first two. Both games were slow paced contests with pace factors of 66.7 and 72.6, both below Tulsa's season pace. The first game had just 125 points scored, while on the second game Tulsa had their best offensive game of the season with 92 points scored and 128 offensive ratings, but that was a back to back game for Seattle, who was coming from playing a tough game at San Antonio the day before. Seattle's coach tends to overuse their players and the Storm just couldn't be competitive on the second day of a back to back. This time, I expect today's game to be played at a similar pace, something that puts a lot of pressure on both offenses in order to perform well enough for them to score a combined of 145 points. Tulsa's defense will be better today than they were on the two previous games, as Seattle's offense is very far from the level of the LA Sparks and Minnesota. On the other hand, Tulsa's offense will also struggle today on halfcourt sets and without their starting PG. Therefore, I see this game being a very low scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 145 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

WNBA Premium Play 06/14: Minnesota Lynx @ Tulsa Shock

WNBA - 605 Minnesota Lynx @ 606 Tulsa Shock 

Projected Line: 166 points

Minnesota's offense won't have problems in scoring against Tulsa, a team who is super turnover prone, who has a poor transition defense (15 fast break points allowed per game) and with no good interior presence, as Liz Cambage is still out due to injury. The Lynx had a terrible game at Washington, with a poor 99 offensive rating. That's poor for them as a 99 offensive rating isn't that bad league-wise. However, they had offensive ratings of 123.3, 128.1 and 115.5 on their first three games of the season and I expect them to get back at this level tonight. Minnesota certainly want to win on the road tonight after their loss at Washington, however they have a similar mindset to the Miami Heat. They don't show a lot of defensive effort, as their offense is good enough for them to keep winning comfortably. 

Tulsa is still a work in progress, but they are an uptempo team who plays undersized, so they will want to run a lot tonight. They are coming from two low scoring games in a row, but they are at Seattle (half court team) and then a brutal back to back game at LA against the Sparks, where they had no legs. They are fresh for tonight, so I expect a very high scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over on this game tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Over 162 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker