MLB - 955 Cincinnati Reds @ 956 Houston Astros
(Starting Pitchers: H. Bailey vs L. Harrell)
Cincinnati will be starting Bailey today and he is coming off a loss against the Cardinals last Sunday, where he allowed five runs and nine hits in six innings. He keeps struggling and he has allowed at least four runs in five of his last six starts. He is regressing now and with 6, 4, 4, 6, 3 and 5 runs allowed on his last six outings, he had a 6.04 ERA, .339 BA, 4.16 FIP and 4.14 xFIP in August. Therefore, even a poor Astros offense should be able to put Bailey is some trouble tonight.
The Astros will be starting Harrell and he is coming from one run and two hits allowed in NY against the Mets last Sunday. Harrell is allowed just two runs or less in eight of his last nine outings, in a clear sign that he is pitching extremely well right now. He has been especially superb at home with a 6-2 record and a 2.14 ERA in 10 outings. He had a 3.13 FIP and 3.43 xFIP in August and he has also good split numbers against RH batters (3.39 FIP and 3.78 xFIP). He has already faced the Reds once and he dominated with just one run and seven hits allowed in seven innings, therefore I expect him to once again have a quality outing tonight.
With Bailey struggling and Harrell is superb form, I believe Houston has a very strong SP edge tonight that will give them a very good shot of pulling the upset in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Astros tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 956 Houston Astros ML (w/ L. Harrell) @ +145 / 2.45 on 5Dimes
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