NBA - 875 Indiana Pacers @ 876 Orlando Magic
Projected lines: 180 points | Orlando by 2 points
Orlando will be without Hedo for this game due to suspension and also J-Rich due to injury. Hedo's influence on the team is quite evident, as the team's net offense with him on the court is +11.07 offensive rates, while the team improves defensively with him not playing with +5.80 defensive rates. With J-Rich, we have something similar, with the team being +5.15 on offensive rates with him on the field and +0.86 on defensive rates with him out of the court. Therefore, with both players out of today's games, I expect Orlando to play much worse on offense, while they should play better defense than usual. With these two key players out, both Quentin Richardson and DeAndre Liggins should see increased minutes today. If healthy, Von Wafer could also see his role increase, however the Magic have deactivated Wafer in each of the last two games due to a sore shoulder. The Magic are coming from a great win at Chicago, where they had a monster 1Q who gave them the lead, but then the team almost choked at the end. Their key on offense was as usually their 3pts shooting with 11-26, as they struggled at the rim with 12-26 FG.
On the other side, Indiana is coming from a tough OT loss last night in Miami, where they led almost the whole game! Still, just one player was on the court for more than 40 minutes, Granger with 43 minutes. Prior to that game, Indiana had 3days off and considering the short trip from Miami to Orlando, I don't believe this spot will be too tough for them. Yesterday the Pacers were able to put pressure on Miami making them commit 20 turnovers, while they also prevented the Heat from scoring easy points with 17-29 FG at the rim and Lebron individually with just 5-10 FG! Indiana's problem was really their offense with poor inside numbers with 11-28 FG at the rim!
Orlando is currently leading the series by 2-1, with the road team always winning. The pace of the previous games between these two teams were 89, 89 and 93 and with offensive rates of 208, 214 and 178! I believe Indiana will have a good mindset for today and it was important for them to have a close game against a top team like Miami, after getting constantly crushed in their other recent games against top teams. Their frontcourt will make some problems to Howard and the Pacers will eventually make this game highly competitive. I believe Indiana will be able to put a lot of problems to Orlando, in a game with poor offense and therefore, I will be taking both Indiana and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 875/876 Under 184,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 875 Indiana Pacers (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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