Wednesday, March 7, 2012

NBA Premium Play 03/06: Houston Rockets @ Boston Celtics


NBA - 555 Houston Rockets @ 556 Boston Celtics

Projected line: 192 points

Boston has now a confirmed starting lineup until the end of the season with Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Garnett. This lineup is quicker on the court and maybe because of that, since the All Star break, the Celtics have been playing on a faster pace, with an average pace of 95.05, 15 fast break points per game and offensive rates of 105! They have also an excellent ball movement with 27, 26, 35 and 29 assists in their last 4 games and what is really making Boston struggle at times is their lack of rebounding and the continuity between their starters and their bench. 

They will face host the Rockets, who have been struggling with their terrible interior defense, who has allowed 70% FG at the rim in their last 5 games, so Boston with their crisp passing game will have a lot of opportunities to easily score tonight. Houston has been heavily struggling in getting rebounds and their defense in their last 3 games has been quite bad as well. The Rockets are a terrible defensive rebounding team, but they are very good in grabbing offensive rebounds by being #2 in the league with 1.14 PPP on this kind of play, while the Celtics struggle on this area with 1.12 PPP allowed in offensive rebound situations from their opponents.

Looking at Boston's faster pace and good offense right now and the Rockets ability to get a lot of second chance opportunities. I expect this game to have a lot of good offense with Rondo and Lowry leading the way for both teams. Therefore, I will be taking the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 555/556 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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