NBA Free Premium Play 03/06: Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats

Orlando   at Charlotte

NBA - 553 Orlando Magic @ 554 Charlotte Bobcats Projected line: 191 Orlando is coming from a weird game in Toronto where they should have scored at least 105 points. Howard was a beast with 16-20 FG, while he shot just 4-14 FT! With such a huge edge, Toronto had a put a lot of effort on defending Howard and that would give more space for the Magic shooters, however Hedo shot 0-6 FG, J-Rich 2-10 FG, Nelson 4-10 FG and Redick 3-10 FG, while Ryan had a decent game with 7-16 FG. As a team, Orlando shot 0-3 FG from 10-15 feet, 1-7 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-28 3pts! Still, the Magic showed a good ball movement with 25 assists, having now dished 24, 26 and 25 assists in their last 3 games! The Magic ran a number of 1/5 pick-and-rolls and 3/5 pick-and-rolls with Nelson and Turkoglu serving as the ball handlers, while Howard was able to convert on a handful of layups and dunks! Toronto used small ball, but with little efficiency from their guards who were terrible, as Calderon shot 3-9 FG, DeRozan 9-22 FG, Kleiza 1-6 FG and Barbosa 2-6 FG. As a team, the Raptors were also quite poor with 6-25 FG from 16-23 feet! Tonight, the Magic will be playing a back to back game in Charlotte, with an easy game mindset for this game. Orlando used just 8 players in the rotation last night, with Howard playing 36 minutes and J-Rich with 37 minutes being the most used players. The Magic have been on a similar spot for 3 games this season and they averaged a pace of 88.10, 104.6 of offensive rates and 101.4 defensive rates! Today, the Magic will have another field day on the offense, as the Bobcats have Biyombo banged up and he lacks experience to guard Howard, while Diop/Mullens/Brown won't stand a chance against Howard as well. At the same time, the Bobcats are just #26 in defending spot up plays by allowing 0.91 PPP, so we can be sure that the Magic shooters will also bounce back from last night's poor performance. On the other hand, the Bobcats were quite aggressive on offense against the Nets with a lot of free throws and they should also have an edge in terms of speed against the Magic backcourt. So, I expect Charlotte to have some production on offense tonight, helped by the bad mindset of Orlando for this game. I expect this game to have a lot of offensive production from Orlando and an acceptable level of offense for Charlotte as well and so, I came up with a totals projection of 191 points, high enough for me to take the over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 553/554 Over 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes