NBA - 819 Los Angeles Lakers @ 820 Denver Nuggets
Projected line: 199 points
Unfortunately, because the Clippers were clearly exhausted we can't read much into this game other than the obvious observation: the Nuggets depth was too much for the Clippers to handle, especially when fatigue kicked in. And don't let the box score fool you that shows the Clippers' bench scoring 33 points to the Nuggets' bench's 39, as most of that production from the Clippers came during meaningless garbage time. For today, the Nuggets game plan will be to push up the pace against the super size of the Lakers frontcourt! In the last two games between these two teams, the pace was 93 and 95 and that indicated this exactly gameplan from Denver!
On the other side, the Lakers offense has been much better lately, as they have been looking better overall.
Their offense (even if you account for playing lesser defenses) is running more smoothly with outside shots starting to fall. Mike Brown has (seemingly) found rotations and player combinations that he’s more comfortable with and that’s led to better consistency from the majority of his roster. Their last 5 games offensive rates:
110.47, 116.17, 104.78, 117.31 e 122.90! They have been shooting 40% from 3pts (vs 29% from season average!). The better inside out game will make damage to the Nuggets, something that didn't happen early on the same. Denver will crush the bad transition defense of the Lakers (#25 by allowing 1.17 PPP), not to mention the clear edge of Lawson over Fisher! The Lakers offense on post up plays is very good (#1 with 0.94 PPP), same goes for offensive rebounds (#9 1.08 PPP), while Denver is just #10 and #27 on defending this kind of plays! I expect a fast paced game, with both teams taking advantage of their offensive edges and therefore, I'll take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 819/820 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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