NBA - 511 Dallas Mavericks @ 512 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: 193 points
Cleveland is coming from a game against Orlando where they had problems to score on the inside against Howard. Varejao shot 3-7 FG at the rim, while Irving also shot just 4-8 FG in the same area. They had a big 4th scoring quarter, but their offense struggled indeed. So, will Dallas be able to do the same thing today? That's unlikely, as the Mavs are 18th on transition defense with 1.12 PPP allowed and 21st on fast break points defense with 14.4 ppg allowed, with 17 ppg allowed in their last 5 games! Dallas is coming from a game where Indiana shot 7-13 FG in transition for a 1.19 PPP average! On the rim and paint defense, Dallas is a good team with #2 on points in the paint allowed with 35.5 ppg and are also allowing just 61% FG at the rim, but Cleveland doesn't attack the rim with their frontcourt, but with their guards!
Dallas had tremendous problems on offense due to the physical play of the Pacers. In fact they are 0-2 on their last 2 games, as they faced two teams physical superior to them, who were able to shut them down on the inside: 14-27 FG at the rim + 4-15 FG from 3-9 feet! Dirk had a good game yesterday with 12-17 FG, but their backcourt was completely stopped: Terry 4-11 FG, West 2-8 FG, Beaubois 2-8 FG! For today, Dallas will have a much better matchup on the offense against the Cavs defense. Cleveland doesn't have the athleticism of Oklahoma City or Indiana and they are terrible on defense, where Dallas excels on offense: spot up plays, where the Cavs defense is just #26 with 1.03 PPP allowed! Cleveland has been grabbing the boards very well and I expect that to happen again today, so I see the Cavs having an offensive edge on their guards and offensive rebounds, which will allow them to put a good number of points on the board. At the same time, I expect Dallas to have an offensive bounce back as well, therefore I see enough conditions to expect a good offensive game from both teams and therefore, I'll take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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