Projected lines: 203 points | Denver by 3 points
The Clippers are coming from a game last night at Utah, which was played with an incredible level of energy with both teams in full attacking mode by clearly attaking the rim! The result at halftime was 56-58, with the Clippers having 32 points in the paint, while Utah had already 40! At a certain time in the 3rd quarter, the result was at 68-67, with 90 of the 135 points being scored in the paint! The Clippers entered the game well with CP3 and Blake, but quickly their lack of depth was exposed, with the Jazz completely dominating the Clippers poor 2nd unit in the beginning of the 2nd quarter, with a tremendous edge of Favors + Kanter vs Jones + Evans! Both teams had really good inside numbers, with the Clippers shooting 21-28 FG at the rim and 5-12 FG from 3-9 feet, while Utah shot 17-26 FG at the rim and 9-15 FG from 3-9 feet! With so much aggressiveness, both teams lacked energy for most of the 2nd half. The 3rd quarter ended with a 16-16 partial and even though the 4th quarter ended 35-31, that was due to the 35 FT attempts! The key edge of that game was CP3 who is now playing at MVP level, with the Clippers shooting 10-25 FG on P&R ball handler! With the Clippers improving their interior defense during the game, Utah began to have problems on the outside shots as usual with 5-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-11 on 3pts! Utah's gameplan was to push up the pace to create some transition points (25 fast break points + 10-15 FG on transition plays) or free throws (26-36 FT) and that's why they were competitive!
Now the Clippers are into a super bad spot tonight, as they will be playing their 4th game in 5 days and a back to back game against Denver! Their stretch has been really tough (@DEN with the altitude, vs OKC, @UTA and vs DEN) and considering how physical was last night's game and Denver's revenge game spot, I believe the Nuggets are ready to use their super physical basketball to run over a tired team of the Clippers. Last week, the Clippers won at Denver by 109-105, but in that game Lawson didn't play and the Nuggets ended up playing a close game, where the red hot outside shooting of the Clippers was the key. After the game coach Karl complained about Lawson's absence: "How we like to play and how we play efficiently is with a lot of speed and open-court quickness and aggressiveness," Karl said. "We did a good job of getting a lot of that into the game (against the Clippers), but we didn't get as much as we normally get into the game. Probably the efficiency of our pick-and-roll game, our penetration game, was down because Ty didn't have 20 of those possessions"; "Without Ty, it's above average. With Ty, it's special."
During that game, Denver smashed the Clippers on the inside with 29-41 FG at the rim, but the Clippers countered with a super outside game with 14-30 3pts, with Billups shooting 11-20 FG 6-12 3pts, in a 32pts performance! Considering the Clippers terrible physical spot, I doubt they will be able to do half as good today with their tired legs! The physical edge of Denver for tonight's game is huge and that will decide the fate of this game. Therefore, I'll take the Nuggets today. Considering the more than likely problems for the Clippers today on offense, I came up with a totals projection of 203 points, low enough for me to take the under in here as well!
Now the Clippers are into a super bad spot tonight, as they will be playing their 4th game in 5 days and a back to back game against Denver! Their stretch has been really tough (@DEN with the altitude, vs OKC, @UTA and vs DEN) and considering how physical was last night's game and Denver's revenge game spot, I believe the Nuggets are ready to use their super physical basketball to run over a tired team of the Clippers. Last week, the Clippers won at Denver by 109-105, but in that game Lawson didn't play and the Nuggets ended up playing a close game, where the red hot outside shooting of the Clippers was the key. After the game coach Karl complained about Lawson's absence: "How we like to play and how we play efficiently is with a lot of speed and open-court quickness and aggressiveness," Karl said. "We did a good job of getting a lot of that into the game (against the Clippers), but we didn't get as much as we normally get into the game. Probably the efficiency of our pick-and-roll game, our penetration game, was down because Ty didn't have 20 of those possessions"; "Without Ty, it's above average. With Ty, it's special."
During that game, Denver smashed the Clippers on the inside with 29-41 FG at the rim, but the Clippers countered with a super outside game with 14-30 3pts, with Billups shooting 11-20 FG 6-12 3pts, in a 32pts performance! Considering the Clippers terrible physical spot, I doubt they will be able to do half as good today with their tired legs! The physical edge of Denver for tonight's game is huge and that will decide the fate of this game. Therefore, I'll take the Nuggets today. Considering the more than likely problems for the Clippers today on offense, I came up with a totals projection of 203 points, low enough for me to take the under in here as well!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Denver Nuggets (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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