Thursday, February 2, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 02/02: Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks


  
Memphis   at Atlanta 
 
 
NBA - 501 Memphis Grizzlies @ 502 Atlanta Hawks


Projected line: 187 points | Atlanta by 1 point

Memphis showed lack of confidence on the offense again since they were down in the score in the 2nd quarter of their last game against Denver and they got to halftime of that game with 11-40 (28%) FG! However, they keep being aggressive in both ends of the floor and if we look to the points scored by them in that game, they were generated via effort: 17-9 edge in offensive rebounds, with 34% vs 22.5% on offensive rebound rate, 28-35 FT, while forcing 25 turnovers to the Nuggets and scoring 21pts from turnovers and 20 fast break points with 9-12 FG on transition plays. In the rest, the Grizzlies struggled on their half court offense, mainly thanks to their lack of confidence, with 6-20 FG on spot ups and 3-10 FG in pick & rolls! On the other side, Denver had a decent offense early on by taking advantage of Memphis' errors, with 12-18 FG in transitions and 28 fast break points! Gallinari and Lawson couldn't handle with the defensive pressure from Memphis and had bad games: Gallinari 1-10 FG and Lawson 5-11 FG, but with 4ast and 5TO! We have to give merit to the Grizzlies defense, who finished the game with 13 steals and 9 blocks!

“Guys were diving and leaving their hearts and souls out there,” Griz coach Lionel Hollins said. “I told them ‘That’s who we are.’ That is how we got to where we are. Last year, this year, it has always been with our effort. …We have to scratch and claw every night. Some nights it won’t be good enough, but at least you can go home and sleep at night when you give it your all.”

Memphis finally tried to attack near the basket with 17-29 FG at the rim and 4-18 FG from 3-9 feet. They didn't have a lot of efficiency, but that allowed them to grab offensive rebounds and fouls! For today's game, I like Memphis' mindset as I'm sure they will play hard and they will also have more confidence after a big win against Denver! Since then, Atlanta can be a good matchup for them, as the Hawks are coming from a 3-games winning streak against 3 of the worst teams in the league: Detroit, New Orleans and Toronto! Atlanta have clearly been a jump shooting team, especially after Horford's injury (#2 in the league with 16-23 feet jumpers with 30.9% volume) and in their last four games, 25% of their shots have been 3pts attempts, clearly above their season average of 21.5%! With that, they have been struggling in grabbing offensive rebounds and they are in the bottom 10 in offensive rebounds rate in the league! Against the Raptors, who used a super undersized backcourt with Calderon + Bayless + DeRozan, Atlanta punished them with Johnson and McGrady for an easy win, but today Atlanta's backcourt will have some problems against the aggressive perimeter defense of the Grizzlies. Atlanta has been having problems with turnovers lately, with 17, 19, 15 and 15 TO in their last 4 games, something that most people didn't notice due to their wins.

I believe Memphis will have a clear effort edge today and with their aggressiveness, they will create turnovers, dominate the boards and punish Horford's absence. I believe this will be a pure ballgame and therefore, I'll take Memphis today. On the other side, considering Memphis' aggressive mood for tonight, I came up with a totals projection line of 187 points, high enough for me to take the over in here as well.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Memphis Grizzlies (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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