NBA - 803 Miami Heat @ 804 Los Angeles Lakers
Projection line: 183 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
With Bosh, the Lakers would be a perfect matchup for Miami. The Lakers defense is good, but Miami's offense with everybody available is basically unstoppable. However, things will be different with Bosh out and with a hustle defender like Haslem in the starting lineup. I would doubt that Lebron at PF would be able to stop Gasol, but with him back in the SF position and with a tough player like Haslem in the lineup, I expect the Heat to show today why they are a top defensive team in the league as well. Miami's defense only struggles on spot up plays and Lakers isn't a good outside shooting team. Miami's rim defense is excellent and the Lakers will be forced to shoot from the outside. Kobe will eventually go for a lot of isolation plays, but Wade is a tough defender and he will cause him problems as usual.
The Lakers are 2-0 since the All Star with two good offensive games, but they faced Minnesota on a back to back game and without Love plus Sacramento who plays zero defense with three shorties in the backcourt. The Lakers shot very well at the rim in both games, but they struggled from the 3pts line by shooting 5-21 3pts vs MIN and 6-17 3pts vs SAC. Fisher is a poor shooter, Blake is slumping, Artest is a mess offensively and Barnes isn't also shooting well. The Lakers will be very dependent from Kobe in the offense and he generally struggles against Miami, as he shot 6-16 FG, 8-21 FG and 8-21 FG in the three games against Miami with Lebron.
Since Bosh and Lebron joined the Heat, Miami is 3-0 SU against the Lakers, while all three games have clearly gone under the totals line. The pace of these three games were low with 86.86, 81.77 and 85.15, so I expect another slow paced game in here. Miami without Bosh isn't as good offensively and the Lakers are still a tough defensive team on half court basketball. On the other end, Miami has the right tools to completely stop the Lakers offense and so, I expect a game with a low number of points, as the pace will be slow and the offensively efficiency of both teams won't be great. So, I came up with a totals projection of 183 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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