NBA - 505 Atlanta Hawks @ 506 Toronto Raptors
Projected line: 182 points
Toronto is coming from a great road win in New Jersey, where their small lineup was super efficient! The Raptors shot 51,5% FG, with a low volume on the inside, with 10-14 FG at the rim and 4-7 FG from 3-9 feet, but with an excellent super volume on 16-23 feet shots, with 15-28 FG! Toronto took advantage of having a lot of perimeter players on the court at the same time, while DeRozan bouncing back from a slump with 11-16 FT! On the other side, New Jersey was completely confused with the Raptors lineup. They tried to post up more with the size advantage, but it was clear that the team wasn't ready for that and they lost their offensive flow, with 5-19 FG on spot ups! Humphries was almost invisible on court with 1-4 FG and 8 boards! New Jersey had a small edge on offensive rebound rate, but Toronto by being more aggressive easily won the game!
I don't believe Toronto will have such success against Atlanta, as the Hawks are a good post up team (#7 with 0.86 PPP) and the Raptors aren't so good in defending the rim right now by allowing 70% FG on this area on their last 5 games, while their season average is just 57% FG! Atlanta has been having some excellent ball movement lately and with their superior size, they will create problems to Toronto on the inside-out! In the last game between these two teams, the pace was 87.50 and the Hawks had a huge edge on the boards, however they had a terrible frontcourt game with Collins+Marvin and no bench, while Toronto struggled on the outside with 8-23 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-12 3pts! This time I expect a better offensive performance from both teams, as their offense have been clicking kinda well lately and so, I came up with a totals projection of 182 points, high enough for me to take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 178,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment