Projected Line: Minnesota by 8 points
I expect the Celtics to heavily struggle tonight on a very poor spot for them. They are coming from a blowout loss in NY last night against the Knicks, where their offense showed absolutely no flow with just 12 assists. Paul Pierce is doubtful for tonight, so things will only get worse for them on offense. I believe Jeff Green will try to carry the Celtics's offense on his own and besides the fact that he is quite inconsistent, the Wolves have Andrei Kirilenko to guard him to limit Green's effectiveness on offense tonight. Therefore, I expect another poor offensive showing from the Celtics tonight, especially when they have no presence on down low. They will have to settle for jump shots as usual, but Minnesota is #6 in the league on spot up defense and should be able to limit the Celtics's offense very well tonight.
On the other hand, I believe Minnesota will be able to have a decent offensive game tonight. Ricky Rubio is in excellent form and he is leading his team's offense to some nice performances as of late. The Celtics's defense seems to be regressing lately as well, something normal considering they have been playing without Kevin Garnett and they will be also without Paul Pierce tonight. The Wolves's offense bases most of their offense on pick and rolls and the truth is that Boston's defense has been also regressing on this area as well. They have been an elite defensive team on pick and roll ball handler plays throughout the whole season with 0.70 PPP, but they have allowed 0.81 PPP on this kind of plays over their last 10 games! I believe Minnesota will take advantage of their better spot for tonight and the Celtics's terrible offense to get a comfortable win over Boston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 738 Minnesota Timberwolves (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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