NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Line: Miami by 1 point
Miami will play their third game in a row without Lebron James and Dwayne Wade, but this will be the first game where their opponents won't overlook the shorthanded Heat tonight. This was super evident with the Spurs and even on their game against the Knicks, the NY team showed no intensity during the first half. As soon as the Knicks stepped it up a bit in the second half, they outscored Miami by 20 points. Looking at the probable starting lineups for tonight, Chris Bosh has an evident edge over the Bobcats's frontcourt, but how will the ball get to Bosh? Not very effectively. Miami's ball movement is struggling right now and with the lack of floor spacing, even Bosh has to go to spots where he isn't used to play. This is why Miami has only scored 18 and 36 points in the paint on their last two games.
On the other side, Charlotte is playing better as of late. They are showing good effort, their coach refuses to tank and he is playing Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson 40 minutes a night! If these two backcourt players have decent performances, then the Bobcats can be competitive in their games. Looking at Miami's backcourt for tonight, with Mario Chalmers banged up, Norris Cole being a defensive mess and Mike Miller/James Jones being two of the worst defensive players in the league, I expect Kemba and Henderson to have big games tonight on their dribble penetrations.
I took Miami -17 on the last game between these two teams, but in much different circumstances. Charlotte was dead tired at the time on a back to back spot and they had a physical letdown after playing a very tough game against Detroit on the previous day. Then, Lebron James played 34 minutes and had 11-14 FG, 10-11 FT, 32 points, 10 assists, 8 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks! Things will be much different tonight. Charlotte has a good spot, they had a decent matchup against this super shorthanded version of the Heat and even though Miami may still win down the stretch, we have a line that protects us from a late choke of the Bobcats. Therefore, I'll be taking Charlotte in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Charlotte Bobcats (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Projected Line: 197 points
Atlanta is coming from a very poor home loss against the Knicks. I said that this game would have a pace battle and the Knicks clearly won that battle by being able to set a very slow pace, as the game had a pace of 81! This was by far the slowest paced game of Atlanta on this regular season, so we can easily realize that the Hawks's running game didn't exist on this game. Atlanta scored just 13 fast break points in the game, while shooting 5-12 FG + 0.93 PPP in transitions! Devin Harris's absence was important, as he is one of the quickest guards of the Hawks. Another important factor was the Hawks's bigs not being able against the undersized Knicks's lineups. Josh Smith shot 0-7 FG in the first half! He got affected by that and he wasn't aggressive in the second half, where he didn't have a single FT attempt. Al Horford was also very poor and even though Atlanta decided to try to feed him down low in the fourth quarter, they couldn't do that because they committed too many turnovers down the stretch just trying to make the entry post pass! The Knicks outscored the Hawks by 27-14 in the fourth quarter. The Hawks had seven turnovers in the final quarter and had several defensive breakdowns. At one point, Raymond Felton converted three straight layups and that absolutely killed the game.
On the other hand, Philadelphia managed to lose at Charlotte, after controlling the game early on. Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young combined 4-33 (12%) FG in that game, while the rest of the Sixers's roster looked decent with 29-61 FG! Defensively, the Sixers couldn't stop the Bobcats's transition game, who scored 24 fast break points and shot 12-16 FG in transition! These are bad news for Philadelphia, as the Hawks run pretty well the floor. On the other side, I expect Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young to have an offensive bounce back game tonight, while showing more aggression.
Atlanta lost their identity against the Knicks and accepted to play a game with a pace factor of 80.95, while their previous eight games had pace factors of 93.27, 90.28, 92.24, 92.93, 91.01, 94.94, 96.73 and 90.26! Now on tonight's game against the lowly and young Sixers, I expect Atlanta to get back at their fast paced style and these two teams have already faced each other after the All Star break, in a game that had a pace factor of 91.07! In that game, Philadelphia was playing their fourth game in five days, something that made Turner and Holiday shot a combined of 4-19! On the other hand, Jeff Teague had a big game, something that shows how poor the Sixers's perimeter defense currently is. Even with the poor spot of the Sixers, that game still had 203 points scored. I expect another high scoring game between these two teams tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Milwaukee Bucks @ 506 New York Knicks
Projected Line: NY Knicks by 4 points
The Knicks are coming from big games at Miami and Atlanta, both National TV games. They will play a home game tonight against Milwaukee and then, they will play a big 1PM game at Oklahoma City next Sunday. Thanks to this, the Knicks's mental spot for tonight won't be the best. Matchup wise, the Bucks have in theory the same weapons to torch the Knicks's defense that the Hawks's offense had, but couldn't capitalize due to a poor spot. With Kenyon Martin being out for tonight, we will have Carmelo Anthony and Steve Novak playing some minutes at the Center position once again, as the Knicks won't have a backup center available for Tyson Chandler.
I took Atlanta on the Knicks's last game, as the Hawks had a clear speed edge over the veteran slow footed Knicks. With Harris out, things got tougher for the Hawks, but Jeff Teague had a decent performance with 5-10 FG, 5-6 FT and 9 assists. However, he had 6 turnovers. The Bucks have Brandon Jennings, who is an inconsistent player, but who always plays well against the Knicks, while Monta Ellis will be a massive threat for the Knicks's defense as well. Also J.J. Redick will be a threat for the Knicks. Josh Smith was a complete disappointment against the Knicks, but Ersan Ilyasova is currently in good form and on the team's last game against the Wolves, he had 12-21 FG, 29 points and 12 rebounds!
Milwaukee will be able to play with their three guards, as the Knicks will do the same thing. With the Bucks having a clear backcourt edge, together with the Knicks's poor mental spot for tonight, I believe this game will be a very competitive one. The Knicks defeated Milwaukee by 10 points on the last game between these two teams, mostly thanks to a 22-13 4th quarter score. This time, I believe the Bucks will be competitive until the end of the game, so I'll be taking Milwaukee tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Milwaukee Bucks (+7,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 509 Toronto Raptors @ 510 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Line: Minnesota by 10 points
We have two teams in here who have similar records, but who are playing at a very different level right now. Minnesota has been having playoff caliber number on their last 10 games. They have been playing against good teams and they defeated Milwaukee on the road and Boston + Oklahoma City at home, while they also had a close loss against the Lakers. One of the keys for that is Ricky Rubio, who has been shooting the ball quite well! We all know how he is able to play good defense, especially on steals, and be an excellent passer, but he is now also shooting the ball quite well with 7-12 FG and 5-6 3pts for 19 points, on the team's last game at Milwaukee. Coach Adelman has 999 wins on the NBA right now and so, the Wolves will be motivated to give his coach the 1000th win tonight.
Toronto's defense has been horrible lately in running back to defend. Their backcourt has been playing very poor on defense lately and so, the Wolves's backcourt will have a field day on offense tonight. The Raptors are coming from a home win against Washington, but that was due to the bad spot that the Wizards had in that game, as they had played a tough game against the Bulls at home the night before and they had no legs in the second half. Toronto's poor rebounding won't help them tonight and they have been having a bunch of no-shows on the road lately. I expect that to happen tonight as well and so, I'll be taking the Wolves in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 510 Minnesota Timberwolves (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 519 Dallas Mavericks @ 520 Sacramento Kings
Projected Line: Sacramento by 6 points
I believe Dallas's loss at Denver yesterday was the final blow on their playoff aspirations. They are now on a terrible spot tonight and I expect Sacramento to run all over them. The Mavericks have defensive problems at the Center and the PG positions and the Kings have exactly the offensive threats to punish Dallas tonight. DeMarcus Cousins has every condition to pound Dallas down low tonight, while Isiah Thomas and Toney Douglas should have no problems in outplaying Mike James and Darren Collison. Dallas is also just #21 on spot up defense, an area where Sacramento can also pound them considerably due to their several perimeter shooters. Considering the matchup and spot edges, I expect Sacramento to have a big offensive game tonight.
On the other hand, I'm not so sure the Mavericks's offense will be able to hang around with the Kings today. They will play their third game in four nights and they had a very tough game at Denver last night. Dirk Nowitzki disappeared in the fourth quarter of yesterday's game and the truth is that he has been playing quite poorly on this road trip, after looking so impressive last week. The Kings aren't a good defensive team, but they are athletic on both frontcourt and backcourt, so I expect them to cause some problems to the veteran Mavericks. I believe the Kings will use their athleticism, matchup edges on offense and their much better spot to absolutely run over the Mavericks tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Sacramento tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 520 Sacramento Kings (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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