MLB Premium Card 04/03

MLB - 911 St Louis Cardinals @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs B. McCarthy)

We won our yesterday on St Louis quite easily because there was indeed a huge gap in terms of quality and current form between Garcia and Cahill. I believe the same will happen tonight, but it will be Arizona's SP (McCarthy) having a clear edge over St Louis's SP (Lynn). I believe Lynn is a very inconsistent pitcher and he showed that during Spring Training with a 5.00 ERA. I don't believe he will be in conditions to outpitch McCarthy tonight, who has been showing that he is an elite SP as long as he is healthy. McCarthy continued to see progress with his change-up this Spring and his 19/3 K/BB ratio in preseason is a good sign for his season debut tonight. He also has a sharp cutter and even though the Cardinals were an elite offensive team last season, they were simply average against this kind of pitch. I believe we have a clear pitching edge favoring the Dbacks tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 912 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ B. McCarthy) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB - 925 Baltimore Orioles @ 926 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: W. Chen vs J. Hellickson)

Tampa Bay is struggling on their hitting on this early season and that was visible yesterday, where the Rays were only able to create some damage in just one inning. Things won't get any easier today against Chen, who dominated them last season. On 83 AB's, the Rays's roster hit just .217 BA and .551 OPS against Chen! On the other side, the Orioles's offense seems to be much better than the Rays's lineup right now. I was impressed at how they put Price in trouble yesterday. Today against Hellickson, I don't see how he will be able to shutdown this in-form decent Baltimore offense. He struggled in Spring Training with a 6.75 ERA and just 13 strikeouts. Therefore, I expect a contact pitcher like him to struggle against an offense who had 13 hits against an elite SP like Price yesterday. I see a lot of value on Baltimore tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 925 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ W. Chen) @ +115 / 2.15 on Bovada

MLB - 923 Boston Red Sox @ 924 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: C. Buchholz vs H. Kuroda)

We took Boston on the first game of this series, while saying that the Red Sox could be a surprising team this season, but they would need monster years from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz for that. Lester was superb on Spring Training and he had no problems in shutting down the Yankees's offense on the first game of this series. The problem for the Yankees is that Clay Buchholz also had superb numbers on Spring Training. I know that we can't take preseason numbers very seriously, but we can't ignore the fact that Buchholz had a 0.79 ERA in 22.2 innings for a great 22/6 K/BB ratio! It seems pretty evident right now that both Lester and Buchholz are on a mission and super focused to start this season very well.

The difference for tonight is that the Yankees will have their current real ace on the mount. C.C. Sabathia struggled against Boston and he couldn't reach his normal speed on his pitches, especially on his fastball. On the other hand, Hiroki Kuroda had a great Spring Training, while showing great control with 12/3 K/BB. Kuroda's great control was also visible last season on the Yankees's series against the Red Sox, where Kuroda had a 21/4 K/BB ratio in 35 innings! I expect Kuroda to have a good performance tonight, while the same should happen with Buchholz. This should result in a very low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923/924 Under 8 (w/ C. Buchholz vs H. Kuroda) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada