Projected Line: 205 points
The spot between these two teams couldn't be any different, as Oklahoma City had 4 days off prior to tonight's game, while San Antonio will play their fourth game in five nights, after having played against Orlando at home last night. However, San Antonio rested players at Memphis (Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard didn't play) and against Orlando (Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard didn't play; Tim Duncan played 13 minutes), so the spot isn't as terrible for the Spurs as it could have been. However, looking at the spots of both teams, I have no doubts that Oklahoma City will try to push up the pace as much as possible tonight, in order to take advantage of their spot edge. In fact, the Thunder at home, with at least 1 day of rest versus an opponent in back to back spot, is averaging an offensive rating of 121.90 in seven games, while averaging 17.4 fast break points per game.
Looking at the last game between these two teams, where I took the Under, the Spurs won the contest even without Tony Parker. At the time, Oklahoma City was playing their fourth game in five nights and they hadn't rested anybody in the previous games.Therefore, Russell Westbrook ended up forcing too much with 11-27 FG and 4 turnovers, as the Spurs were playing without Tony Parker and Westbrook thought that he could had a big game against Cory Joseph. I believe that Westbrook won't be forcing as much tonight, on a much better spot for the Thunder. On the other side, San Antonio will be having their big three back (Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard) and even rested, looking at how little they've played during this terrible span of games for San Antonio. That is important, as they will now be able to play major minutes tonight. The Spurs will have their usual edge with Tony Parker and their frontcourt duo of Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan, something that San Antonio will explore by running a lot of pick and rolls, where they'll explore Kendrick Perkins's slow feet. This is why Splitter was able to have 9-11 FG, 10 rebounds and 3 assists on the Spurs's last game against the Thunder.
San Antonio's last three contests were low scoring games, but they faced a super shorthanded Miami, then they faced Memphis on the road without Duncan and Leonard, while yesterday the Spurs were more concerned in saving energy for tonight's game than in pounding the lowly Magic. This time, I expect both teams to use very well their offensive edges on this matchup, on a contest that promises to be a fast paced one, as the Thunder will push up the pace as much as they can. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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