Projected Line: 198 points
The Lakers were playing at a very fast pace in March, as generally teams coached by Mike D'Antoni do. They had a span of seven games where their pace factor was 96.56, 92.29, 92.95, 92.89, 96.58, 103.64 and 96.88! The pace was very quick, they were hitting a lot of treys, but then they played a back to back game at Milwaukee, where they had no legs to compete against the quick Bucks on a back to back spot. The truth is that after that game, Mike D'Antoni finally gained some conscience and looked at the lack of depth on this roster or the fact that he had Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard on the frontcourt. I don't really know what happened, but the truth is that since that game in Milwaukee, the Lakers's pace factor went to back to what it was in the Phil Jackson era. After their game against the Bucks, they played in Sacramento against the super fast paced Kings and the pace of that game was 83.8!!! Then, they faced against the run and gun Mavericks at home and the pace was 89.2! Finally, they faced the Grizzlies at home and the pace was once again slow with 86.9! I know Memphis is a slow paced team, but it's important to note that the Lakers decided to play slow against them and defeated the Grizzlies on their own game.
They will face the Clippers today and the Lakers will no incentive to accelerate the pace of this game against the Clippers's young legs. In case you don't remember, the Lakers allowed 125 points to the Clippers the last time these two teams faced each other. There was indeed a completely change of style on the Lakers on their last three games, where they scored just 4, 9 and 4 fast break points, while they are basing their offense more in Pau Gasol's post ups, who has been playing very well. This change only benefits the Lakers and they are now playing better also on defense. All of these comes from the fact that they are having a bigger control on the flow of their games.
The Clippers are a halfcourt team and having in account the Lakers's current style, I believe this game will be slower than the first three games played between these two teams this season. This should turn this game into a very interesting one, as both teams have very powerful frontcourt to turn this contest into a very physical one, on a playoff-like battle. Of course Chris Paul will have a clear edge over Steve Blake, however the Lakers's defense is now a better unit than they were earlier on the season due to Dwight Howard being healthy again. Therefore, I expect a physical slow-paced contest in here, something that should turn this game into a low-scoring affair. So, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Memphis Grizzlies @ 506 Sacramento Kings
Projected Line: Memphis by 9 points
Sacramento is now back to their chemistry problems, with DeMarcus Cousins being benched on their last game. After that, Isiah Thomas also criticized Coach Keith Smart and it seems clear to me that the players want to get rid of their coach and so, they will enter in tank mode for the rest of the season.
It's just tough as a player," starting point guard Isaiah Thomas said following Friday night's loss to the Mavericks. "I always say that when you have inconsistent minutes, you're going to have inconsistent production. It's nothing we can control," Thomas continued. "It's how coach Smart likes to coach and you just got to go with it and always be ready at all times, because you never really know when you're going to go in the game or come out."
On the other hand, Memphis is coming from a tough loss in LA against the Lakers, where they had several chances to win the game. The Grizzlies's offense has improved on the second half of the season, especially since the Rudy Gay trade, where their A/TO ratio has also improved. The Kings's defense has been horrible for the whole season and so, Memphis should be able to explore that today. Sacramento's offense has been playing well, but I believe Memphis will make a good defensive job today. The Kings dished just 21, 19, 19 and 20 assists on their last four games and that's a very low number for a fast paced team like them. Memphis comfortably won the first three games against Sacramento this season and so, I expect them to bounce back tonight and pick up another easy win against the Kings today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Memphis Grizzlies (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 513 Utah Jazz @ 514 Golden State Warriors
Projected Lines: 204 points | Golden State by 8 points
The Jazz will be without their best defensive PG Alec Burks for tonight and so, Mo Williams and Jamaal Tinsley will really have to play a lot of minutes today. This is terrible news for Utah's poor perimeter defense, as they are #23 in the league on 3pts defense with 38.3% 3pts allowed on their last 10 games, while they have also allowed 0.96 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays over their last five games. The truth is that their perimeter defense has been so poor lately that Greivis Vasquez torched them on their last game with 9-13 FG, 21 points and 9 assists! Therefore, Golden State's backcourt will have a massive offensive edge tonight.
Utah's rebounding has been also poor lately and their interior defense isn't great neither. They have been winning games mostly due to an easy schedule: Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Brooklyn (on a poor spot), Portland (without LaMarcus Aldridge) and New Orleans. The only time they faced a top team during this span of games, they lost fair and square at home against Denver. The area where the Jazz has been playing well is on offense, where Gordon Hayward has been impressive at the SF position, Mo Williams is hooting well and of course, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are good offensive players down low. Golden State's post up defense isn't good (1.10 PPP allowed last 10 games; 0.91 PPP allowed last 5 games), so Utah should have a decent offensive game tonight. I expect a very high scoring game in here, but with Golden State's offense crushing the Jazz's defense, getting an easy win in the process. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Warriors and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 200,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 514 Golden State Warriors (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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