NBA - 503 Washington Wizards @ 504 Toronto Raptors
Projected Line: 197 points
The Wizards defeated Chicago at home yesterday and without using their starters a lot. In fact, it was the Wizards's bench that was the key for their win. Only John Wall played 37 minutes, with all the other starters playing 28 minutes or less than that. When I first started looking at this rematch from last Sunday, I had a pre-game lean on Toronto due to a potential letdown spot for Washington, especially after a big win against the Bulls last night. I was expecting to see the Wizards's starters playing around 40 minutes yesterday, but they didn't, so I don't expect them to be on a typical "dead legs" spot tonight.
Their game was against the Bulls was a classic grind out game. That wasn't a surprise because that Chicago's style. Things will be different tonight, as Toronto's defense doesn't have a tenth of the quality of the Bulls's defense. The Raptors had a defensive rating of 120 of worse on seven of their last eight games, while allowing 42.6% 3pts over their last 10 games and showing a horrible transition defense with 1.30 PPP allowed! These are good news for Washington, who is crushing their opponents in transition with John Wall, while they have been also solid from behind the line. So, it isn't a surprise that Washington torched Toronto with 9-17 3pts and 16 fast break points last Sunday night, for a total of 109 points scored.
While I don't expect Washington to have such a great offensive game tonight, I expect Toronto to have better numbers than they had last Sunday. It's important to note that the Raptors scored 25+25+26 points on the first three quarters, just to score 16 points on the final quarter. I've been criticizing the Raptors's ball movement lately since the Rudy Gay trade, but the truth is that they have been showing some improvement on that area with 20, 25, 21 and 24 assists on their last four games, while they had only dished 17, 16, 15, 18, 19 and 13 assists on their previous six games! After their big game yesterday against Chicago, I don't expect the Wizards to be fully focused on this game, especially on defense. However, I believe the Wizards will take advantage of the several open looks they will have on offense tonight, turning this game into a high scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 511 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 512 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Lines: 212 points | Milwaukee by 2 points
Milwaukee absolutely crushed Charlotte on their last game, but this win is hiding some problems that the Bucks are currently dealing with. They faced the Bobcats on a strong spot for a physical letdown and this was exactly what happened. As long as the Bobcats had legs to compete, the game was relatively close. Charlotte's numbers on offense represent exactly that: 8-12 FG + 1.50 PPP on transitions; 8-12 FG + 1.00 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays; 8-14 FG + 1.00 PPP on spot ups! Just like I mentioned on my Top Play on the Over in the Bucks/Bobcats game, Milwaukee showed good effort in pushing up the pace with 11-15 FG + 1.65 PPP on transitions! On the other side, their pick and roll ball handler numbers were poor with just 4-13 FG and 0.59 PPP!
I expect Milwaukee to keep trying to push up the pace of their games tonight, especially when Minnesota is now also playing on an uptempo style. The problem for the Bucks is that the Timberwolves will be a much tougher opponents than the Bobcats were last Monday night. The Wolves easily defeated the Celtics at home last Monday, while scoring 23 fast break points and 62 points in the paint! It's incredible how Minnesota is able to score 110 points in a game, while struggling on their perimeter shooting with 5-18 3pts!
I expect a pure run and gun game on tonight's game given Milwaukee's effort in pushing up the pace and Minnesota's last games against fast paced teams. On this kind of conditions, Minnesota led by Ricky Rubio and with their good ball movement, they will be a massive problem for the Bucks's defense, who will get outplayed by the Wolves's high volume of transitions and pick and roll ball handler plays. I expect a very close high scoring contest in here and so, I'll be taking both the Timberwolves and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 208,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Minnesota Timberwolves (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 517 Memphis Grizzlies @ 518 Portland Trailblazers
Projected Line: 193 points
Portland will play without LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum tonight, but I actually expect them to be relatively competitive tonight due to some relaxing from the Grizzlies. The Blazers's interior defense has been horrible with 70% FG allowed at the rim over their last 10 games and 75% FG allowed on their last 5 games! They are also allowing 0.90 PPP on post up plays since the All Star break (0.97 PPP L5!) and they have also allowed their opponents to score 74, 62, 56 and 52 points in the paint on their last four games. So, it will be very easy for both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to have great offensive games tonight.
On the other side, I expect the Grizzlies to relax a bit on defense like they generally do on this kind of spots. They are 13-9 Over as road favorites this season, but with 6-1 Over on their last 7 games on this spot! Not only the Grizzlies's defensive effort won't be great tonight, as Damian Lillard is close to unstoppable right now on offense. The Grizzlies have allowed 40-110 3pts on their last 5 games, so I believe Portland will continue showing their good outside shooting tonight.
Considering Memphis's spot for this game, I expect the Grizzlies to show little effort on defense and simply take advantage of the massive offensive edges they'll have tonight to pick up a comfortable win tonight. I expect Damian Lillard to have a big game tonight, so I believe this game will be a relatively high scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 519 Houston Rockets @ 520 Sacramento Kings
Projected Line: 221 points
I expect this game to be a very high scoring contest. Sacramento is averaging a pace factor of 94.42 on home games where they had at least 1 day off prior to the game, so we know that this game against the fast paced Rockets will definitely be a very fast paced contest. Matchup wise, with James Harden and Chandler Parsons back, the Rockets will have massive edges on pick and rolls, spot ups and transitions, three areas where the Rockets's offense is elite, while the Kings's defense is in the bottom of the league. On the other side, Sacramento's offense will also have considerable edges on spot ups and transition plays, as the Rockets's defense is also quite poor on this area, especially on this kind of games where they show poor effort on defense and maximum effort on offense.
Therefore, I expect this game to be a very fast paced game, with both teams having several matchup edges on offense. This can only result on a very high scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 217,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 521 New Orleans Hornets @ 522 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: 201 points
Golden State has a great spot to have a big offensive game tonight. They have several edges on offense over the terrible Hornets's defense, especially on the backcourt. Golden State's offense is based on spot ups, isolations, transitions and pick & rolls, all areas where the Warriors are a good offensive team and where the Hornets's defense is just outright bad. With the Warriors having a great spot and an excellent matchup against the Hornets's defense, I expect Golden State to have a big offensive game tonight.
When the Warriors have a great matchup on defense, their defensive effort tends to be quite poor. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if New Orleans has a good offensive game in here as well. Greivis Vasquez should have a nice night in here by leading the team's pick and rolls, while the Hornets should also be able to have a decent outcome on their spot up shooting. I expect this game to be an all-offense affair, with the Warriors having a big offensive game and with the Hornets taking advantage of the Warriors's poor defensive effort to score a decent number of points as well. Looking at all of these factors, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 501 New York Knicks @ 502 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: Atlanta by 9 points
***TOP PLAY***
Atlanta has been one of the teams that has made me lose more plays this season due to their inability to stay focused and finish off the deal, especially against lowly team. They simply lack focus when they get a good lead on their games and they simply allow the lowly teams to make comebacks against them. However, I believe that we have the right spot and the right opponent to take the Hawks tonight on a Top Play. Note that this is a game against the "powerhouse" Knicks and this will be broadcasted on National TV (ESPN), so I don't expect anybody to have a poor effort tonight.
The Knicks are coming from a big game yesterday at Miami, where even though the Heat were shorthanded, the Knicks needed to give it all to get the win. That included Carmelo Anthony to play 40 minutes, in order to have a career-high 50 points, while shooting 18-26 FG, 7-10 3pts and 7-8 FT! Tyson Chandler returned to the lineup yesterday, but he looked terribly out of form. The NY team has been playing super undersized lately and it's normal during some periods of the game watching Carmelo Anthony or Steve Novak playing at Center! Obviously, their lack of size and speed is a problem, but the Knicks have been able to minimize that by setting a very slow pace on their games. The problem is that Atlanta with their offensive style will take advantage of the defensive problems that the Knicks have been showing, something that hasn't been happening during this winning streak of the NY team.
During this span of games, the Knicks is yet to face a good running transition team like Atlanta. They faced Toronto (twice), Boston (twice), Memphis, Charlotte and Miami (without Lebron James and Dwayne Wade), teams that are very far from Atlanta's level of running up and down on the floor. The Hawks are also a great team on finishing at the rim and the Knicks simply don't have any rim protection right now, as Tyson Chandler looked very far from 100% yesterday and he is the only good defensive big man that the Knicks have. On the other side, of course the Knicks's offense has been excellent, but it's dangerous to live exclusively from their 3pts shooting: "You live by the 3, you die by the 3". Yesterday, the Knicks shot 8-19 FG from 9feet or closer to the basket and 24-44 FG from +16 feet! Their isolation plays are working with Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, but this is also a dangerous proposition for a team, especially on a back to back spot and after two big games against Boston at home and at Miami. Therefore, I expect a massive letdown from the Knicks today, while Atlanta has also the right style to pound the Knicks's defense tonight. I believe Atlanta is going to pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 502 Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Brooklyn Nets @ 506 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected Line: Brooklyn by 8 points
Brooklyn ended their road trip in the West with two back-to-back loss in Denver and Utah, so they will be trying to bounce back tonight at Cleveland. They had 3 days off between games, so they should be on a good spot to bounce back in here. On the other hand, the Cavaliers are coming from a loss in Atlanta and they will be on a tough spot tonight, as they will be playing their third game in four nights. Kyrie Irving didn't play against the Hawks because it was a back-to-back game, but he will be facing the Nets. He is still quite banged up and even though he will still be very dangerous on offense, he has been struggling on defense and Deron Williams should be able to have a good offensive game tonight.
But the main matchup edge that Brooklyn will have in here will be on frontcourt, where the Cavaliers's poor interior defense will be torched by Brook Lopez, while Cleveland's poor rebounding skills will get exposed by Reggie Evans. Brooklyn's offense is pretty much based on post ups, spot ups and isolations, three areas where Cleveland's defense is #30, #24 and #30 in the league. On the other hand, Brooklyn's main problem on defense is the fact that they are a slow footed team, but the Cavaliers's offense are just #28 in the league on transitions with a low volume of 12.3% on this kind of plays. Therefore, I expect the Nets to have a good offensive game, with Deron Williams, a returning Joe Johnson and especially Brook Lopez torching the Cavaliers's lowly defense, while a banged up Kyrie Irving won't be able to keep his team competitive in here on his own. I expect to see an easy win for the Nets tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Brooklyn Nets (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 507 Philadelphia 76ers @ 508 Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Line: Philadelphia by 8 points
Charlotte finally paid the price of using his starters a lot in every game on their last game at Milwaukee. The game had a pace factor close to 100 and the Bobcats's starters had no legs to compete in this contest. Still, Coach Dunlap still used Josh McRoberts for 39 minutes, Kemba Walker 35 minutes and Gerald Henderson 34 minutes! Now, with the Bobcats playing their third game in four nights plus the trip to comeback home, I really believe Charlotte will have no legs to be competitive tonight.
The Bobcats confirmed on their last game in Milwaukee how horrible their defense is, while they had no legs to be productive on offense throughout the whole game and they ended the fourth quarter with just 18 points scored. They will now face a Sixers team that had 3 days of rest prior to this game and they are still fighting for a Playoff spot.
"We're 7-4 in our last 11. ... Obviously the clock is ticking, but as long as you keep winning you keep giving yourself a chance," coach Doug Collins said. "We've settled into a nice little playing stretch here where guys are really helping each other."
Philadelphia's last game was exactly a home contest against the Bobcats last Saturday night. The Sixers were coming from a win at Cleveland the night before, on a game where their starters played big minutes. The relax spot for Philadelphia on their game against Charlotte was evident and this is why they got outscored by 22-31 in the first quarter of the game, just to outscore Charlotte by 78-61 in the remainder of the game. Charlotte's offense was excellent in what they're generally good: 9-15 FG + 1.05 PPP in pick and roll ball handler plays and 6-10 FG + 1.17 PPP on transitions. On the other hand, Philadelphia's offense was good in literally everything.
Now, with Philadelphia having a huge spot edge for tonight's contest and with them being more alert at the start of the game than they were last Saturday, I expect the Sixers to pick up an easy win in here. Their improved offense and decent defense should be more than enough to beat the lowly Bobcats on a poor physical spot for them. Therefore, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Philadelphia 76ers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 515 Denver Nuggets @ 516 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 198 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
First of all, I expect both teams to show good effort tonight. They are in good spots (Utah is in the middle of a home span, while Denver had 3 days off to rest) and they are currently involved in the postseason fight (Utah trying to secure a playoff spot; Denver fighting for 1st round home court edge). The Nuggets are currently playing without their starting PG Ty Lawson and that's has been noticeable in several ways. First of all, the Nuggets are playing at a slower pace than usual with Andre Miller at the starting PG, who lacks Lawson's explosion to lead the Nuggets's great transition plays. Then, Lawson is also the team's best shooter, while Miller is a quite poor outside shooter, therefore Denver's streaky perimeter shooting is even worse than usual. Utah has a good transition and cuts defense, therefore I believe they will be able to do a good job on Denver's offense today. The Jazz's main defensive struggle is on spot ups, but like I've mentioned, the Nuggets's outside shooting is quite poor, especially without Lawson.
On the other hand, if you haven't noticed, the Nuggets are now an elite defensive team. I only need to mention that they are allowing just 0.89 PPP (Points Per Possession) to their opponents since the All Star Break and that would put them as the #2 best defense in the league if that was their season average. Denver's post up defense has been especially remarkable with 0.74 PPP allowed since the All Star break and so, I expect them to limit very well Utah's post up game today. The Nuggets are also #2 in the league in transition defense and #4 in pick and roll defense, therefore I believe they are going to have another great defensive performance today. Denver's main struggle on defense is on their perimeter, but they are also playing better on this area lately by being #11 in the league with just 35.9% 3pts allowed since the All Star break. Utah is coming from two nice outside shooting games, but that was due to Randy Foye shooting 8-9 3pts against Brooklyn and Mo Williams 6-7 3pts against Portland. These two players are very inconsistent shooters and it's unlikely that they will repeat these numbers tonight. The rest of the Jazz's roster shot 0-14 3pts on the team's last two games, so I don't expect Utah to have a great outside shooting game in here.
I believe this game will be played on a relatively fast tempo, but with both defenses showing a lot of effort and using their favorable matchups to stop the opposing offenses. Denver is currently playing much better on defense than on offense and this should be really felt tonight. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and therefore, I don't agree at all with the current totals line. So, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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