NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Phoenix Suns
Projected line: pk line
Dallas hasn't been playing well since the All Star break, having lost four of their last six games. They are now playing without Haywood and with Odom in ridiculous form (1-9 FG vs NYK), Dallas has been heavily struggling on rebounding, as in their last 5 games they had a rebounding rate of just 45.5%! For today, their scenario won't be good as even though Phoenix doesn't have a monster frontcourt, Gortat has been in very good form and with him being helped by Nash, we can expect him to have a good performance tonight! In fact, he is coming from a huge game in Oklahoma City last night with 9-19 FG 10-13 FT 28pts and 11reb! The problems for the Mavs aren't just defensive, as in fact they have been quite decent on defense. Their problem have been really on offense and in their lack of continuity. We are talking about a team that at the beginning of the 4th quarter against the Knicks allowed a 15-0 run! With no inside game, Dallas is almost exclusively a jump shooting team, as note that in their last game, the Mavs shot 7-14 FG at the rim and 3-10 FG from 3-9 feet, with a 30% volume of their shots in those two areas, while they had a shooting volume of 54% from 16 feet or further!
Unlike the Mavs, Phoenix has been playing well since the All Star break. Even though the final score may not show that, the Suns fought for the win until the end against the Thunder last night. The Suns built the lead back up in the third quarter to a full 16 points for an 84-68 lead, before the wheels came off and the Thunder came to life, finishing the game on a 47-20 run! Of course a back to back spot won't be good for them, but with them playing at home, this will be the 4th time that the Suns will play on a similar spot and they had very good results on the three previous games: 86-84 vs MEM, 99-101 vs ATL and 81-78 vs LAC. They were very competitive in all three games and always against good team! This will be the fourth and last game between these two teams this season and Dallas is currently 3-0 on the series, with the last game being a blowout win in Phoenix by 122-99, but where the Suns played without Nash. Therefore, there is a revenge mindset for the Suns in here and I expect them to be able to at least make this game very competitive. So, I'll be taking Phoenix tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Phoenix Suns (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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