NBA Premium Play 03/05: Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

NBA - 507 Los Angeles Clippers @ 508 Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected line: 188 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This is a terrible physical for the Clippers, as they played at home at 02/28 against Minnesota, 03/01 at Sacramento, 03/02 at Phoenix, yesterday at Houston on overtime and tonight, they will play in Minnesota. During this season the Clippers have two games on a similar spot, with a pace of just 87 and 88 and offensive rates of 102.5 and 101.6! Yesterday, their game against the Rockets went to overtime, with Butler played 41 minutes, CP3 42 minutes and Blake 38 minutes. The Clippers shot 46.5% FG, with their outside shooting being the highlight with 11-29 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-14 3pts, however they had just 17 assists and it's weird for them to use so many ISO plays.  

On the other side, Minnesota is coming from a nice road win at Portland in a shootout. The Blazers didn't want to defend and the Wolves had a rare good outside shooting game with 7-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 12-23 3pts. Also Love had a monster game. The head to head is at 2-0 for the Wolves, with two wins via 4th quarter comebacks. The last game between the two teams was weird, as the Clippers were able to stop Love and Rubio (1-8 and 4-13 FG), but then in the bench Williams and Beasley shot 9-10 FG and 11-15 FG. Both teams have a powerful frontcourt, there will be a lot of physical play which will prevent both teams from scoring easy points at the paint. In the first two games of the series, MIN shot 17-25 FG at the rim and LAC 10-17 FG, while in the second game, MIN shot 17-25 FG and LAC 18-28 FG.

I expect this game to have a slow pace due to the Clippers tough spot and CP3 being excellent at controlling the pace of the game. With the Clippers having a double revenge spot. they will bring a lot of hustle for this game, which will result in good defense from both teams as well. So, I came up with a totals projection of 188 points, low enough for me to take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker