Tuesday, March 6, 2012

NBA Premium Play 03/05: Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls


NBA - 511 Indiana Pacers @ 512 Chicago Bulls

Projected line: 180 points

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

This is a bad physical spot for Chicago, as it will be their 3rd game in 4 days and also a back to back game. Yesterday in Philadelphia, Deng played 43 minutes, Rose 42 minutes and Noah 38 minutes. The Bulls defense since the All Star break has been in lockdown mode by allowing just 98, 96, 101.9 and 102.5 offensive rates to their opponents. Note that the Sixers shot 39% FG yesterday, with 1-11 3pts! Their offense has been very well, but today due to the bad spot and the tough matchup, I expect them to struggle, as the Pacers have a good backcourt defense and their frontcourt is tough just like Chicago's. 

Indiana's defense has also been excellent and it has been the key for the team to get out of their losing streak, as they have allowed their opponents an average of 96.10 offensive rates on their last 6 games. The Pacers have been playing very well in terms of transition defense and they have also been very good in terms of rebounding. Their offense is being super sharp, but note that they have been facing low tier defensive teams lately. 

In the last game between these two teams, Indiana won at Chicago and celebrated their win almost in a ridiculous way, something that really annoyed the Bulls, so expect a lot of physical play tonight. In that game, both teams struggled to score on the inside (IND 17-30 FG and CHI 18-31 FG at the rim) and today I expect the same to happen. Granger had a big game, but Deng didn't play that game and now he's back to guard him. I expect a very low scoring game in here, in a game similar to a playoff game. So, I'll take the under in here in a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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