Monday, March 5, 2012

NBA Premium Play 03/04: Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs


NBA - 815 Denver Nuggets @ 816 San Antonio Spurs

Projected lines: 212 points | San Antonio by 3 points


Denver was one of the team who came back re-energized from the All-Star break. Denver has outrebounded their opponents 103-71 (54-36 vs Blazers and 49-35 vs Rockets) and they have dominated on the offensive glass with 21 offensive rebounds vs POR and 19 more against HOU. Kenneth Faried, Kosta Koufos and Timofey Mozgov have been the main cogs in the rebounding department, but even the guards are helping out, in a great team effort! Offensively, the Nuggets have been super aggressive with Lawson back in good form: 14+19 fast break points, 54+52 points in the paint plus a great ball movement! These Nuggets are now playing much better than they did against San Antonio in the last day before the All-Star break, as note that in that game, Denver was playing their 4th game in 5 days, always travelling from Oklahoma City to Denver, then to LA and finally back to Denver. Besides that, two of their games went to overtime and Lawson was out!

On the other hand, San Antonio lost against a high powered motor of Chicago, but then had no problems in destroying Charlotte in their last game. I expect a lot of struggles for the Spurs tonight, as San Antonio's frontline will struggle against the aggressive of the Nuggets and with the fast pace of this game, Duncan may struggle in handling the game's pace. I believe the Nuggets will also have an edge on the boards. However, San Antonio with their good ball movement will also have an offensive edge against the bad spot up defense of Denver. I expect a similar game to their first game of the series: a high scoring game with Denver being competitive. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 207 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Denver Nuggets (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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